Waiting for Norm (Update)

Augustine commission delays report release, Orlando Sentinel

"An independent space panel won't release its report on American human spaceflight today as expected. Instead the commission is shooting for a release in mid-September, said NASA's liaison to the 10-member panel, led by retired Lockheed Martin CEO Norm Augustine. The committee, however, aims to send a draft of their executive summary to NASA and the White House sometime in the next 36 hours, said NASA official Phil McAlister. He said the report won't contain any surprises and should correspond to four to seven options developed in hearings earlier this month."

Keith's note: I am told that the White House has already been at work for some time on their analysis and response based to the report based upon initial outbriefings and expected "options" (Shh! they are really recommendations. OSTP just likes the "options" spin better such that they are seen as making the decisions.) That said, when the report is formally delivered - and the White House officially responds - you can be certain that this will not be the final word.

Additional studies will be needed (playing one option off against another) and they will most certainly be done in parallel with development of NASA's FY 2011 budget. Hmm ... possible midcourse changes in NASA's human space flight policy and simultaneous preparation of a new budget - all in time for the traditional "pass back" of that budget by NASA to OMB at Thanksgiving. It is going to be a busy Fall.

Sources report that there were supposed to be congressional hearings of some sort with Holdren, Bolden et al on/around 15-16 September - but that was before the Augustine Committee decided to put more work into their report. Stay tuned.


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Note to the policy makers: Consider the effect on morale of the workers by putting off a decision. It's hard to go to meetings on Ares I when you know it's dying. Put it out of its misery quickly, as opposed to a slow death.

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08.24.2009 - The committee is at work writing the final report and completing some parametric performance calculations needed so that we can more fully address our task. The options proposed are unchanged from what was discussed in the final public session. As previously reported, a briefing was held at the White House on August 14 regarding those options. The original plan was to have a printed report ready by mid-September; however, because of the length of the report it may require an additional two weeks before final release.

Seems to me this delay is just part of the gamesmanship, or should I say brinksmanship, with congress. Lot's of big national issues at stake and you have to wonder if NASA is in play as a bargaining chip. Oh, silly me, I forget. We don't buy or sell votes in this country do we...

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Lets see with health/insurance reform and the climate change on the White House front burner for September, anyone want to guess how much priority will be given to these decisions? Take your time Norm; October is a great month to make space policy!

Another Insider said: "Note to the policy makers: Consider the effect on morale of the workers by putting off a decision. It's hard to go to meetings on Ares I when you know it's dying. Put it out of its misery quickly, as opposed to a slow death."

Morale? What's that? I think it fled a long time ago.

While Constellation workers stay the course, waiting for some kind of results, millions of dollars and thousands of laborhours are spent on designs and concepts that won't ever fly.

Better yet, the workers can watch their managers back slowly down the aisle towards the exit with the last parachutes, the managers telling them, "Just stay the course! Keep on doing good work! What you're doing is valuable!"

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The floggings will continue until morale improves!

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The Augustine Commission delay is a convenient excuse for NASA. A longer delay will move the Augusine Commission report delivery closer to the planned launch of Ares 1-X in October, thereby giving the Administration less time to decide to halt the launch. The longer the delay, the better are the odds that Ares 1-X will fly while the politicians fiddle. If the Adminstration does not issue orders to halt Ares 1-X, then NASA will surely launch it.

Halt Ares I-X? Possibily. But you do realize that it costs more to halt or cancel the launch than to just let'er rip. Gone it a three minute blaze of glory or several months of taking it back to bits.

The "commercial space" thing (without the traditional NASA hsf thorough & detailed oversight) has some glitches compared to a DOD report going to congress.

The panel "industry experts", especially Bo the Greybeard, may appear mighty foolish on the commercial space thing compared to the DOD outsourcing report:

Outsourcing: Where Will You Draw the Line?
http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/cs/2009/08/outsourcing_where_will_you_dra.html


Although somebody could counter that the quality of the NASA oversighters significantly matters too (CxP flunkies vs. Shuttle).

For whatever the new program chosen is, the counter response would be to recruit the best Shuttle workers USA contractors and former NASA HSF personnel (especially the over-45ers previously runoff in the last few years & those riffed during the 90s better-faster-cheaper Goldin days.

Starting to think that Buzz & similar folks are enjoying palling around with the rich & famous celebs (Branson, Musk, etc.) too much, drinking the glitz & glam koolaid, and just aren't thinking clearly.

Plus, republicans with a chip about Shuttle, because the disasters happened on their watch, seem to want very much to pass off blame for future disasters to a contractor rather than hold themselves accountable for right decision & best management practices.

Don't know how many embedded former Republican congressional staff & the like are now in the NASA ranks, especially in DC, but think they need to be herded into a special projects group - maybe in Alaska or Antartica - & keep them busy with "designing" some space junk cleanup policy & programs & reassign the current CxP mgmt & workforce to that project as well!)

Seeing as the report will be delayed and this might create better odds for the Ares to launch I would get it on the pad ASAP. Get it out there, the news crews will be all over it! Get as much coverage as possible on of now while you can so it will be harder for anyone to cancel it if it's already on the pad!!

One thing worth noting is the NSC review of space policy that is ongoing in the background. The Augustine Commission has a more visible role, but a much more limited mandate. In conjunction with the NSC review, there may be some powerful options available, but it should be no great suprise if nothing comes to the fore quickly.

Maybe they're re-reviewing the various Options' cost estimates?

Space Exploration Cost Overestimated, Study Finds
http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/tech-mainmenu-30/space/1790

Even after Obama makes his 'decision', all will still have to pass through the halls of Congress. And when was the last time that Congress approved a budget for the next FY before Sept 30th? This could drag out for months, with Obama having made his choice public, while Congress debates and dithers, while all the folks working on Cx try to keep their 'morale' up. Egad.

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This page contains a single entry by Keith Cowing published on August 31, 2009 6:15 PM.

Checking in on Obama's Campaign Promises on Space was the previous entry in this blog.

Finally: The True Apollo 11 Story Can Be Told is the next entry in this blog.

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