Russian Asteroid Mission Needs Better Data

Space head: Russia may send spacecraft to asteroid

"Without mentioning NASA findings, Perminov said that he heard from a scientist that Apophis is getting closer and may hit the planet. "I don't remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032," Perminov said."

99942 Apophis, Wikipedia

"On Friday, April 13, 2029, Apophis will pass Earth within the orbits of geosynchronous communication satellites. It will return for another close Earth approach in 2036."

NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward Earth

"Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."

Keith's note: I certainly hope that Perminov gets some slightly better data before his people start to plan mission trajectories - a good place to start is to get the right year.


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I sure hope so - NASA currently estimates chance of a collision is 4 in a million. IIRC that is a 99.9996% chance of a miss.

I think this sort of mission is critical, but the Russians should choose a less dangerous target for the initial mission.

Let's see-We're supposed to count on Ivan to save us from a meteor strike? We'd better see the undertaker and make our reservations! Anybody want to guess what the Russkies will charge for this-and guess who will wind up paying??? (hint-it's the same country paying to keep the Soyuz operating while Russia swaggers around and parties like it's 1961....)

I don't think it's that big a deal for the head of a space agency to not have exact dates available for quick recall. He's not the one doing the trajectories. The Russians have some pretty good trajectory analysts (they won GTOC last year). From his speeches, you can see that there are several gaps in what the current NASA administrator knows about robotic missions (because his focus is more on Constellation and Aviation)... shall we make fun of him as well?

I agree with KC:

"...this sort of mission is critical, but the Russians should choose a less dangerous target for the initial mission."

The margin of error is so tiny at this distance/time, have they considered that instead of deflecting the object away from us, perhaps the additional mass of the vehicle will actually deflect the asteroid .00001 degrees towards us?
I mean, it's not like The Law of Unintended Consequences would ever have any bearing on the real world, right? right?? Murphy, I'm lookin at you...

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This page contains a single entry by Keith Cowing published on December 30, 2009 10:09 AM.

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