Worrying About Who Gets Back First

I know being an American I'm supposed be all flag waiving and care. But honestly I could care less as an American who walks on the moon next. We having bragging rights, Been there done that. I would love to go back but in this unstable atmosphere when we don't even have a dependable ride to LEO, why do I give a crap if someone from another country takes those steps we took back in the 60's. Apollo was a great accomplishment and if the fear of a "red moon" or " communist moon " makes congress want to come out their pockets ,I say more power to the Chinese.There will be those that mock me saying I'm unamerican, well those people can look at capitalism and the competition and see how one drives the other.

Damn the Gravity!

"The administration’s fiscal year 2011 budget proposal all but abdicates U.S. leadership in exploration and manned spaceflight at a time when other countries, such as China, are turning to space programs to drive innovation and promote economic growth."
http://wolf.house.gov/index.cfm?sectionid=34&parentid=6§iontree=6,34&itemid=1558

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KA09Ad01.html
(Jan 9, 2009)
http://www.wsichina.org/space/program.cfm?programid=3&charid=1
(2005!)

According to the dated sources above (which note the opaque nature of the process!) CNSA gets between 1.3 and 3 Billon Dollars p.a. vs the $19 Billion in NASA's current budget.. just for civilian ops! If you add in your Military Space funding -whatever that might be- and of course the Black funding for Black programs like Black star...

Abdicating? The letter continues in a similar doom laden manner but I will leave its deconstruction to others more worthy.

On a positive note I hope that the CNSA Heavenly Palace is a success *next year* and that they perfect docking and rendezvous like you did in March, 1966 but without the hiccup.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemini_8

Or is this
http://chinesefood.about.com/od/pork/r/mushupork.htm

"Interesting times!"

China already announced that they intend to develop the resources of the moon, so yes it probably should concern you. Given the nature of their approach to exploration so far, its a pretty safe bet to say that they won't be going just to be able to say they've gone. Thanks to NASA and ISRO, they can be sure that they will find tons and tons and tons of water at the north pole. China will have the high ground and the most precious resource available.

If America gets back to the Moon, it will only be because the Chinese bought U.S. Treasury bonds to loan us the money. The Republicans sure aren't ready to raise taxes to fund a Moon program now that Obama has actually cut spending the way they've always screamed at the Dems to do.

@brobof

If you read it on the internet it must be true!

Damn the Gravity!

I think everyone is over complicating what China's agenda is! I personally believe China's only reason for going to the moon is write the history books as the second nation to visit the moon. Nothing more!
Once they step on the moon they will terminate their program and focus on long term duration like space station and so forth.

I don't believe anyone will be establishing long term bases on the Moon for 500+ years. Everyone talks about it but there is no desire for it.

I think the point about being first has been lost.
It wasn't just about beating the Russians to an imaginary finish line. We wanted to be first to be sure that we would have first crack at any untapped resources or profitable opportunities (on the moon or back at home, having the most powerful spaceflight system means a great deal).

Unfortunately, in our haste to declare victory and move on after Apollo, we overlooked the fact that the moon was more than just a gray ball of dust. There were resources to claim and high ground our future generations may desperately want.

The danger is now we're in a position where someone else is able to go and discover things or carve up lots, entirely independent of us.
Fortunately its not nations that have showed themselves to be far more proficient in controlling information than the west, or we may never know what amazing new things are discovered.

If our intention in space is merely to plant flags then it really doesn't matter if we get any place first.

However, if our intention is to venture beyond the Earth in order to determine if humans can live there permanently and to exploit the natural resources of those new worlds, then it does matter which nations get there first.

The first nation to set up the first base on the Moon will probably be the first nation to start creating revenue from wealthy tourist going to the Moon. Space tourism has the potential to be a multibillion dollar a year industry. And the Moon is the ultimate space tourist destination.

The first nations to start making money on the Moon will probably be the first to start colonizing and industrializing the moon. And the first nation to industrialize the Moon will eventually dominate the multi-hundred billion dollar a year satellite telecommunications industry since its a lot cheaper to launch satellites from the lunar surface than it is from the Earth's surface, in addition to the fact that it will require a lot fewer satellites to be launched for networking satellite systems since they can be placed in much higher orbits.

However, the US could always start its lunar base 10 or 20 years after the Chinese (unless we decide it would be cheaper just to let the Chinese companies build us lunar facilities since they'd already be there). But private industry around the world will have left the US behind to invest in Chinese industries already set up on the Moon.

So we'll end up as a bit player on a new continent that could have been totally economically dominated by the US and US companies. And the Chinese will continue towards their economic domination of the Earth and the rest of the solar system.

Marcel F. Williams

Marcel I think you are getting a little ahead of yourself.. The Chinese space program of today is comparable to the Mercury or Gemini programs of the 60's and not even close to Apollo and nowhere close to the Space Shuttle program and its accomplishments. So to say we are so far behind the Chinese we should be worried about them tapping into the moons resources is fear mongering hyperbole. Although I do agree NASA shortsightedness beyond STS has put us in a lull with no clear direction but to say the Chinese are any further along than America is FALSE. When the Chinese have a LRO type craft or any craft orbiting the moon then we can talk about the prowess of the Chinese space program.

It's not about which country gets there next, but what they do after they get there, if they lay claim to areas of Luna or build bases and outposts.
All the flag waiving and such is long done, son.

The Augustine Commission recommended a $3 billion increase in NASA's annual budget. So that would raise your taxes by less than 0.1 cent for every dollar we send to Washington.

If we can't afford to do that in order for future generations to inherent the quadrillions of dollars of natural resources in the New Frontier then I guess we ought to just shut this country down and prepare for our third world future!

Marcel F. Williams

Fred Sanford: There will be those that mock me saying I'm unamerican, well those people can look at capitalism and the competition and see how one drives the other.

I actually think that a lot of us agree with you. I also could care less if the Chinese get to the Moon before we do it a seventh time. The age of Cold War stunts has past. If the Chinese want to expend billions of yuan on a fools errand to plant a flag for 2nd place, more power to them.

I didn't say we're far behind the Chinese in space. In fact, we're currently way ahead of all other nations in space. And we could be on the Moon establishing our first habitat modules for a permanent lunar base before the end of the decade-- if we wanted too!

But now, the current administration not only has no plans to return to the Moon but they almost seem hostile too it! And now they want to terminate NASA's ability to fly into space. Depending on private companies that are even further behind the Chinese in their ability to send humans into space would be extremely foolish.

But if we're foolish enough to throw away our technological supremacy in space then be prepared for our children and grandchildren to suffer the long term economic consequences of that decision!

Alas it would seem that internet 'truthiness' trumps simple truth. Vide Representative Wolf's letter of abdication. And thus, as the fourth estate is inundated by a cyber-flood of hysteria and hyperbole the latter become mere tags for Google's adsense.
A rational approach would be to revisit the Moon Treaty:
http://brobof.wordpress.com/2009/11/27/moon-pie/
(shameless plug) and then get on with the expansion of the ISS with new Indian and Chinese modules. The killer app for HSF is learning not to kill each other. And, in keeping with one of Lori's recent talking points: discovering how fragile our ecosystem is.

If America can boast of being the great melting pot surely you can extend the practice to the stars, by way of the Moon, Phobos, Ceres,... as it would seem that there is plenty of water to melt!

Personally I would be more worried if Exxon or Halliburton got to the Moon first! It's bad enough living under the tyranny of your MIC on the ground. In space they would even control the air you breathe! ("Heavy Time" C.J. Cherryh applies!)

China does an Apollo 8 type flight and you folks who think it doesn't matter will see how tragically wrong you are.

America must lead on the frontiers. The nations that lead on the frontiers dictate the course of human history.

YES! IT MATTERS!

China knows this well. Very well.

With other nations mulling over their own plans, The race to be second has its own deadline... but the Chinese don't seem to be in much of a hurry.
With a program titled "the long march" that barely launches once every few years, they appear more interested in a sustainable program.
I'd wager that, when they go to the moon, they plan to stay. Having a permanent or highly regular presence would be the first phase in reaping any future benefits.

For the US I think we've lost sight of exactly where we're going and what our intentions are. People have gotten Star Trek ideals confused with the business of national expansion.
A government program, for what it will cost (and it will cost a lot no matter who you ask to run it), should be quick and capable.

Private enterprise will see to itself once a business model besides "Sell it to the government" has been established.
The actual race is to identify those future money making operations and secure any tech or turf needed to make them happen.

It's already been stated, but I suppose it takes more than once. The question isn’t is there a race to get to the moon, it’s “Who will be the first to have a manned Lunar outpost”, this is a big step past a LEO space station. I’d put money on it that China is actively doing this, the US was actively doing this with partners prior to the new unfocused plan.
On a side note, Mr. Bolden needs a history lesson in regards to when the US went to the moon and how many states were part of the US at that time as he seems to be confused as to the amount of stars on the US flags on the moon at the moment.

I'm with Bolden on this one.

As for the politics of the situation, bla bla bla bla bla.

My usual reply when someone says: "Who cares if the Chinese get there? We got there first!" is "Okay, then go there now." Frankly, the ability to get to the Moon in the past is nothing but a historical footnote (and I don't even see that footnote in history books very often anymore). It is practically worthless except for bragging rights. If the Moon is a worthwhile objective for human endeavour, as the findings from the Chandrayaan-1 probe suggest, then it is the ability to get there and do worthwhile things now that will matter.

Now, I, for one, will panic when I see a genuine Chinese capability to both utilise lunar resources and make a decent shot at claiming it as their sovereign territory, not a moment before. However, I do think that the Moon is a natural location for starting work on developing serious BEO exploration skills and tools. More importantly, recent probe data shows that those six landings several important things in terms of discovering what the Moon really is all about. There is still exploration to be done up there and it is debatable if it can be done purely robotically.

Fred, comparisons of Chinese expenditures with American expenditures mean nothing. NASA is spending an awful lot on the Space Shuttle and the Space Station, neither of which contributes anything to the conquest of the Moon...or to anything else. And NASA can spend vast sums without actually accomplishing a thing. Constellation spent nine billion dollars and launched one, count it, one rocket...and that was a publicity stunt that contributed nothing to what were supposed to be the project's objectives.

Yohan, I wish I could predict what will happen "500+" years from now, but the aperture of my crystal ball is inadequate.

JFK WAS WRONG.

Our congressional reps - and Admin Bolden - continue to get it wrong too.

It's NOT ABOUT PREEMINENCE.

JFK, in recorded conversations revealed somewhat recently, and contrary to his public speeches, believed that Apollo's greatest legacy would be to show that the US was the preeminent nation in the world and that our system of Govt was PREEMINENT.

He was wrong.

What Apollo REALLY left as its legacies was:
1) Technological Innovation
2) New business markets created by those innovations
3) New businesses that continue profitably to this day
4) Inspiration of a generation to study what's now known as STEM.

NASA's ROI - Return on Investment - is between 2x and 7x depending on whose numbers you use, and that's SINCE Apollo. During Apollo, those numbers go up to 17x!
But the key point is the word INVESTMENT. NASA is not a COST, it's an INVESTMENT.
And note that the legacies listed don't even list the actual missions! If we were to invest what it REALLY takes to inhabit the moon, we'd get a positive return on the investment, probably on the order of 10x! That's 1000%! So who cares how much it costs?!?!? If we get even 200% out of our investment WE (the USA) MAKE MONEY. And essentially get the moon base for FREE.
That's the message we need to tell our Reps. We've got a 3 week window people. Testimonies resume on April 22.

LET'S TELL THEM TO GET IT RIGHT.

Emory Stagmer
(follow me on Twitter @VAXHeadroom)

Offtopic:
Flag waving. Iran-North Korea-Syria Nonproliferation Act waiver.

I think you're missing the point Marcel. The public simply does not care. People blame this on the Shuttle/Station and being stuck in LEO but it actually started right after Apollo 11 landed. Most of the public is ignorant of the actual value of the human spaceflight program and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

As for the Chinese, they can talk all they want but right now they are decades behind the U.S. with regard to human and robotic spaceflight capability.

I agree Mike, the Chinese using "resources" or making a lunar outpost or base is laughable when their HSF program is in its infancy compared to ESA or NASA or even Roscosmos. On the public giving a crap ,sad but true they don't. I live in Florida and never miss a launch ( or try not to) I know people who have lived here their whole lives and just plain don't give a crap about space or HSF and have the "we have problems on earth" attitude that most share. Most think the money is better spent. On that I disagree I think the single most important thing to the survival of the human race is the exploration of space( us getting off this planet and populating our little corner of space).I would be in the minority.

Today the old buzz words like " orbit" and "re-entry" and yes even " space shuttle" don't inspire wonder and curiosity like they once did. Its human nature " same ole same ole" people get bored. At the end of the day .. the shuttle cost more than it should have although a stout workhorse for NASA for many years. THERE WAS NO CLEAR PLAN AFTER THE SHUTTLE, CONSTELLATION WAS NOTHING MORE THAN 9 MIL WORTH OF GREAT CGI. The ISS has yet to live up its "scientific potential" Although I would give my pinky toe to sit in cupola for an hour.

That being said some totally successful programs I feel deserve mention.

Cassini,Opportunity,Spirit,HUBBLE,LRO

its 2010 why is there not a live web cam on the moon? WE don't need to necessarily go back there but one or 2 rovers would be great LRO/LCROSS proved you can maximize payload and functionality with marginal cost.

Imagine the day you can watch earthrise for yourself live from the Marius hills from the lunar surface via mooncam. That would get some mainstream media time if only briefly.

DAMN THE GRAVITY!

I almost forgot MRO ( mars reconnaissance orbiter)