Work Continues On Cancelled Rocket

Busy Schedule for Rocket Obama Wants Scrapped, NY Times

"Last month, in a speech at the Kennedy Space Center, President Obama modified his proposal, originally unveiled in February, and called for continuing the development of the Orion crew capsule that was to ride on top of the Ares I, but only as a stripped-down lifeboat for the International Space Station. The Ares program would still be canceled. Jeffrey M. Hanley, the Constellation program manager, said in an interview that given the uncertainty of what might emerge in the final budget, "we felt it prudent to continue to operate in the program as if the program were to continue." He described that possibility as "the unlikely case." ... He acknowledged that his efforts were somewhat at cross-purposes with those of his bosses, who are trying to convince Congress that Constellation is unworkable. "I really have to leave it to them to sort out with the national leadership," he said.

Contractors Face Shutdown Costs as NASA Space Program Morphs, Wall Street Journal

"The current clash stems in part from NASA's tradition of giving the Johnson Space Center --where U.S. astronauts are based -- extra latitude in running programs. According to industry and government officials, the Houston center frequently wasn't required to comply strictly with the same accounting and program-management rules that applied to other parts of the agency. That partly explains why many Constellation managers consistently relied on assurances from some NASA managers that the agency would step in and cover liabilities in the unlikely event termination became an issue."

Charlie Bolden's stand on NASA, Constellation and Ares I tests, Orlando Sentinel

"I talk to Jeff quite a bit. As far as I am concerned, Jeff does exactly what I asked him to do, to be quite honest. And Jeff and NASA, we are in a tough situation in that we have to comply with the 2010 provision in law that says we cannot terminate [Constellation], we cannot do this. Everybody knows that the language is and yet we have to be responsive to my desire to move forward."

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With all due respect, in a republic the President merely proposes a change in policy or to cancel a project. Its up to Congress representing the people, to make the final decision.

I know this is often forgotten in the age of the imperial presidents, but it is still how the country works. So until Congress makes a decision its still the project of record and Jeff Hanley is simply doing his job as he is required by law to do.

Now I am not a fan of the Ares I, I much preferred the EELV based proposals, but that has nothing to do with how the process works. So until all the constitutional requirements are completed, and Congress decides, work on Constellation must go forward until it is legally canceled by Congress.

This is also why President Obama should have released his proposed space policy change, and plans to cancel Constellation, to the Congress and the American people before he released his budget, just as every other president before him has done when they decided a major change in space policy was needed.

This is what is supposed to happen this year, Lovely is it not.
The initial condition and the random noise for the strange attractor.

When a non-linear deterministic system is attended by external fluctuations, its trajectories present serious and permanent distortions. Furthermore, the noise is amplified due to the inherent non-linearity and reveals totally new dynamical properties. Statistical tests attempting to separate noise from the deterministic skeleton or inversely isolate the deterministic part risk failure. Things become worse when the deterministic component is a non-linear feedback system. In presence of interactions between nonlinear deterministic components and noise, the resulting nonlinear series can display dynamics that traditional tests for nonlinearity are sometimes not able to capture.

Thank Mike and Scott for the wonderful program on steroids

1986 the New York Academy of Sciences co-organized with the National Institute of Mental Health and the Office of Naval Research the first important conference on Chaos in biology and medicine. There, Bernardo Huberman presented a mathematical model of the eye tracking disorder among schizophrenics. This led to a renewal of physiology in the 1980s through the application of chaos theory, for example in the study of pathological cardiac cycles.

have a joyful CxP week.

The part of the Constellation that makes the least sense is the part that continues being developed. The frustration one must feel when observing the charade that is the government of the USA is exhausting.

EXCELLENT!!! Wonderful news!!! Go Constellation!!!

Finally, something to cheer about!

At worst this gives Constellation employees time to save up and start looking for their next job.

With the President's alternate proposals bogged down, I think that this is pretty much the only way forward right now. So long as they do not spend billions that they don't have trying to make Ares-I human-safe, Jeff Hanley's alternate idea using a D-SDLV core and the Ares-I upper stage might be half-way usable as a BEO launch vehicle.

One possible next step is to replace the SRMs with the launcher technology of the hour - Kerolox. Develop the 1Mlbf rocket in parallel and use four 2 x kerolox engine outriggers in place of the five-seg SRMs. You then use one of the outriggers as a core for an 'Ares-IA'. Yes, I know that would rule out commercial other than as a back-up. Does anyone think that Congress really would care, given the way they have been talking down SpaceX?

However, in any real world, the Ares-IVA (A for Alternate) is not a LEO crew launcher. I'm not sure if they are planning a core-only version like the Jupiter-130 and the Boeing Ares-III. So, realistically, NASA will still need an LEO crew taxi. So, cutting the commercial providers off would be a bad idea.

BTW, I loved the NYT graphic. Obviously someone without any real knowldge of the relative sizes. They assumed that the Ares-Alternate core would be as wide as Ares-V's. By a curious coincidence, this made the Ares-I upper stage as wide as the Ares-V payload fairing. :-p

I wonder what the productivity, morale, and energy level of the Cx worker bees is these days.

Anyone from Cx care to jump in and tell us what it's like?

You pegged it dead on. If Congress wants Constellation stopped now, they need to pass a law saying so. Otherwise NASA would be breaking the law by NOT working on it.

And i personally think that Constellation has at least as many good points as the other proposed systems with the added plus of actually having a test flight as well as more advanced studies.

What??? Canceled rocket? When did this happen? I thought congress had to vote on it to cancel it?

Wait until the "cost" for all this Ares stuff comes out..

Robert G. Oler

Robert,

That is what happens when you have a president that sees Congress as only a rubber stamp. As I noted, a large part of the chaos would have been avoided if President Obama simply announced his plans for space before he released the NASA budget.

The April 15, 2010 speech was good, but it was about 3-4 months too late... And Congress does tend to be protective of its authority, as the Founding Fathers intended it would be.

Wait until the cost (and schedule) for all this commercial stuff comes out. So far they just have promises and no requirements to meet (for the crew spacecraft).

And remember that the Ares cost is for spacecraft and vehicles going to the moon so it's not a direct comparison to the commercial effort.

It's not that bad, more of a distraction really.

No one has been sent home, people are busy.

There is more worry about gaps between projects if the president gets his way.

Thomas, let me go one step further, the president SHOULDN'T be the one setting goals for NASA. Congress SHOULD! When the prez is the one doing this, we'll get a new NASA policy with every new administration, so he or she can leave their signature behind for posterity.

Hence, no long term policy will work; hence, NASA won't work! BUFFOONERY!

Ah, yes, good 'ol Congress, they'll set the record straight! Yeah, right. First they underfund Constellation, now they're trying to save it. Their intentions are so transparent - they just want to get re-elected so they act like they are fighting for Constellation. Wait until after the elections, and if CxP survives, they will continue to underfund it as usual. There are no bright spots on either side of this debate. Very depressing. In the meantime, they can't even figure out that they need to extend shuttle a flight or two with existing hardware for ISS's sake. Time is ticking and nothing is getting done besides a bunch of hot air being blow around.

CI wrote @ May 17th, 2010 at 3:29 pm

Whatever happens with commercial it will be less then the Constellation effort. So far Constellation has spent 10 billion dollars on a LEO device that is no where near getting to LEO. Nothing in Hanley's plan includes "the Moon"...they will par it down to just simply saving Ares 1/Orion. Probably an 5 segment with a standard J2 and the Orion SM makes up the difference.

So far the Ares/Orion effort has consumed more money then Falcon 1/9 Atlas and Delta combined. I have no doubt that the folks at JSC will continue to under perform and over promise.

Robert G. Oler

Tom.

All Presidents see Congress as merely a rubber stamp. And they are for both space and other policy. the Iraq war was extremely unpopular when bush did the surge and yet Congress fell right in line. They always do...and will here.

The same people who oppose a new direction in HSF would have opposed it had Obama given his speech at anytime. It is simply a matter of either protecting the pork/jobs or for space fans protecting their vision of what a national space program looks like.

the problem for opponents of the plan is that they cannot agree on a single well thought out alternative. KBH wants to save the shuttle, Nelson shuttle yes but Ares more, Olson is unsure what he wants, etc. And worse, the American people are in no mood to spend more money on space and everything other then Obama's plan requires A LOT more money.

how have you been? Robert G. Oler

Unfortunately, the Presidents plan is to spend $100 billion of tax payer money over the next 5 years building nothing and going nowhere.

And that's politically 'unsustainable' which is why Congress is so hostile to the idea.

Marcel F. Williams

ALOT OF MONEY is relative.

A lot of money compared to paper studies and no development program, yes.

A lot of money compared to massive government spending, including on trivial things like "cash for clunkers", no.

EE Scott,

[[[Their intentions are so transparent - they just want to get re-elected so they act like they are fighting for Constellation.]]]

That is exactly why, when President Kennedy proposed Apollo he worked with Vice-President Johnson and Administrator Webb, who understood how Washington worked, to make sure major elements, and jobs, were placed in key states and distracts. To ensure the survival of NASA beyond individual presidential administrations, a strategy which we are seeing in action now.

Robert,

Although its true presidents do treat Congress as a rubber stamp they are more subtle about it.

Again, a speech in January that was proceeded with some "dealing making" talks with key members would have avoided most of the problems we see now. Problems made worst because of the public stance many in Congress have now taken.

It would not surprise me if Congress continues Constellation just as reminder to President Obama and future presidents about how things work. Wasteful perhaps, but this is Washington politics we are talking about.

"Constellation has spent 10 billion dollars on a LEO device"

Are you sure about that? I thought Constellation was supporting a mission to the moon, the primary part being the Orion spacecraft. I suspect that the moon mission requirements also had an impact on cost for the Ares I vehicle.

"Constellation has spent 10 billion dollars on a LEO device"

Again, that's not true. Orion was to be capable of lunar missions. That includes systems reliability, guidance and thermal systems. I thought that Ares V would use the 5 segment SRBs and J2-X engines being developed for Ares I. That was the reason the Augustine committee stated that using Ares I would be cheaper than a current commercial vehicle if the Ares V heavy lift vehicle were also developed.

So money spent on Constellation is not just for a LEO device.

NASA is not under Congressional management. It is a Executive Agency. The President can give direction to halt the CXP effort and give the money back to Congress via OMB if it is not spent. Simple as that.

The check and balance is very simple. If the budget sits it goes back to OMB and will be reprogrammed at the end of the 2011 year. No sane person in Washington wants to do this. The transition is to be orderly as directed by the President thus far.

The problem is that, in very many ways, CxP failed to build a system that could reach the Moon. Ares-I can barely launch an LEO-rigged expendable Orion to the orbit of the ISS. The heavier BEO-rigged version might be beyond its powers. Worse, the LEO-only Ares-I was so expensive that it precluded the development of Ares-V except over a literally ludicrous time-scale of perhaps ten to fifteen years after Ares-I IOC.

It is my concern that NASA's priorities have become somehow skewed by their attempts to fight off suggestions that the selection of the Ares Launch System was a wrong-headed mistake. A result of this bunker mentality is that flying a crew on the Ares-I/Orion system has become the sole focus and goal of CxP irrespective if that crew actually has anywhere to go or anything to do. Psychologically, CxP has become Project Mercury Redux - Prove we can put a human into space on our rocket and return him safely to Earth.

So... What are the alternatives? It is something of a red herring to condemn the EELVs for being unable to send an Orion beyond LEO without a new upper stage when Ares-I cannot send them beyond LEO either and would be unable to do so without a massive increase in performance. However, the EELV-Heavies, in their current forms, can launch the LEO rigged Orion to the ISS with a greater margin for error than Ares-I. Furthermore, unlike the ALS, which requires a completely new core launcher for its EDS, plans exist that would enable the launch of an EDS on the same existing EELVs.

You could quite easily have a three-launch strategy for BEO human exploration with the EELVs: Launch 1 for the mission module, launch 2 for the EDS and launch 3 for the crew. It is doable and doable soon. Really the only things required are to build the common upper stage/EDS and crew-rate the LVs. You only need to do the latter (predicted to take 36 to 42 months by ULA) to get the Orion flying to the ISS.

The only question to answer is... why is NASA and Congress waiting? Do they truly believe that rhetoric alone can double Ares-I's performance and make every dollar in the budget do the work of ten?

The Orion that is being built so Ares 1 can lift it is not the same Orion that can go to the Moon...it is being descoped every day due to mass.

As for getting the Moon with Ares. I can get it with Falcon/Atlas or Delta.

Robert G. Oler

Hello Tom

The problem is that there are not many deals to make which compensate in the minds of local politicans for the jobs lost as shuttle and Constellation go away...and they have to go away to really change the dynamic in human spaceflight.

I really dont think that the program is in trouble...for a bunch of reasons not the least of which is that I dont think that there is ANY stomach for additional spending among the American people AND the folks who are trying to capitalize on the problems in DC to get elected.

But having said that...if I had to critique the effort on Obama's part, I would argue that Lori Garver should be engaging the opposition forces harder.

Robert G. Oler

No the president can't. The executive branch is required to execute the laws passed by Congress. Congress passed a law, signed by the previous president preventing the president from doing exactly what you think he should do. If he did it without concurrence or approval of Congress it would be unconstitutional and probably grounds for impeachment as he would be acting as a dictator. If they really want to stop spending this year then they need to go back to COngress for approval and at this late time in the FY it's not worth it.

Hey there
I was writing about FY2011, If NASA is still under CR and no budget is passed. Then congress has to pass yet again CR or another bill which the President can VETO and send back for review, then we are in a stalemate and no money can be spent.

The legislative protection now given CxP is not going to last under FY2011 would be my guess. This is a formulation year so such as it is, we are wasting money on things NASA does not need, the whole agency is under review and has much visibility as this is what the President wanted. The most crying is with in ESMD and the CxP program managed at JSC with a close second SOMD. ARMD and SMD are doing just fine.

When did Congress ever pass a law specifically canceling the Space Shuttle? Mike Griffin justified that decision as a presidential directive, although it was his idea. Now that the president doesn't want Constellation, NASA (at least some elements of it) are ignoring the directive and pressing ahead full bore. The administration is no longer running NASA. It is running itself.

No one seems to be worried about the morale of the Shuttle workers, many of whom will soon, or already have, lost their jobs.

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This page contains a single entry by Keith Cowing published on May 16, 2010 9:30 PM.

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