SpaceX Preps for Falcon 9 Launch

SpaceX boss: 70-80 % chance of success for Falcon 9 launch, Orlando Sentinel

"Musk conceded that, historically, maiden launches of rockets have had no better than a 50 percent success rate. Their first three launches of a smaller SpaceX rocket, the Falcon 1, failed."

SpaceX cargo rocket set for high-profile maiden flight, CNet

"But in a major change, SpaceX has proposed launching the COTS-2 spacecraft on an actual resupply mission to the space station. The company originally planned to make the first rendezvous on the third COTS mission but Musk said it made more sense to move ahead with an actual rendezvous and to use the third flight as an operational backup."

SpaceX Targets Falcon 9 Launch for Friday, KSC Daily News Employee Update

"SpaceX is preparing the Falcon 9 rocket for its first test launch attempt Friday morning from Launch Complex-40 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The rocket will carry a mock-up of a Dragon spacecraft. There will not be a crew aboard the rocket. The four-hour launch window opens at 11 a.m., and the weather forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of acceptable conditions. If the weather cooperates, SpaceX will provide a live webcast of the launch events, scheduled to begin 20 minutes prior to the opening of the launch window. If weather or other difficulties do not allow a Friday launch attempt, SpaceX can launch Saturday during the same window."

Keith's note: I find it interesting (and somewhat amusing) how KSC PAO felt that it was necessary to tell employees that "there will not be a crew aboard the rocket". Gee, wouldn't you think that everyone at KSC (and the rest of the space community) would have known by now if there was going to be a crew aboard - especially since flying crew would mean that the "gap" had just disappeared?

SpaceX Hosts Teleconference to Discuss First Test Launch of Falcon 9

"SpaceX will host a teleconference call at 11:15am EDT on Thursday, June 3, to discuss and take questions on the first test launch of the Falcon 9. The inaugural flight of Falcon 9 will be a test flight and will launch a Dragon spacecraft qualification unit into orbit to provide SpaceX with valuable aerodynamic and performance information. The Falcon 9 launch vehicle is expected to launch from the Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) in Cape Canaveral, Fla., on June 4, 2010. A live webcast of the launch will be available on the SpaceX website at www.spacex.com/webcast.php."


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Can someone post a recording of this or a transcript?

Folks:

The media was well behaved today. Keith can probably shed some light on how Spacex "vetted" participants for the teleconference.

The altitude and inclination of the second stage/Dragon capsule probably have to do more with staying out of other spacecrafts orbits then anything else. The Falcon 9 is flying light on this first flight giving it the best chance to reach orbit.

tinker

Why are launch details and time being withheld ? NASA is very public about launch details for every launch except possibly when a DoD payload was involved. ULA had very nice coverage of the recent Delta IV GPS launch, including dramatic images of the last second pad abort. It would seem that a company that is attempting to gain NASA work should be as open as NASA is.

James (and everyone else):

Here's a twitter feed that covers the main points.

http://twitter.com/62MileClub

tinker

Folks:

Can someone please explain the "Deerhunter" reference? Call me culturally unplugged.

tinker

Disturbing the secrecy issues.
I suspect much of it is unncessary and is not helping them right now PR wise. Perhaps they can clear this up before launch.

Good luck SpaceX with the Falcon 9 test flight.
Go for orbit.

CessnaDriver:

We can thank people like you for any secrecy Spacex has imposed. Your just waiting for something to go wrong so you can say "See? blah, blah, blah...".

Your part of the problem, Spacex is part of the solution.

tinker

Space4US and CesnaDriver, this was posted yesterday on Spaceflight Now:

Elon Musk, SpaceX's founder and CEO, says the company is not releasing the exact times of countdown and launch events to keep the information out of the hands of competitors.

The flight won't enter a news blackout like some military launches. SpaceX will announce events on its own live webcast of the historic test launch.

"We will report events as they happen, but are not providing a score sheet that our numerous enemies can use against us to nitpick what will hopefully be a great flight," Musk said. "This is the first flight of a new vehicle, so there will necessarily be differences between predictions and reality."

@tinker

it's an older movie (not that old really) with de niro, walken, some other folks. on vietnam, etc etc.

i suspect he is referring to the many "russian roulette" scenes in the movie.

i can sort of see the reference elon is making. if you haven't seen it, i bet a synopsis or summary will do it for you. check imdb.

Tinker, it was decades ago that I watched the movie "Deerhunter." There was more than one very disturbing scene in it. I'm not sure which one he was referring to. Sorry, but you will have to rent the movie or possibly pull it up on the internet and decide for yourself.

Best of luck Elon and SpaceX on your upcoming Falcon 9 launch. I hope it's a 100% success.


Go Space X!

Go Innovative, Non bureaucratic, lower cost commercial space!

I am so tired of the rants against Space X and Elon Musk. The man obviously has both an engineering background and vision (things that are usually mutually exclusive)His work at Tesla is forcing change in a hidebound industry- as is his work with Space X.

Lets not forget that Orbital Science is a COTS program participant as well!

Why should NASA have LockMart and Boeing as its only suppliers? Isn't it time we let smaller commercial ventures have a shot at things left best to commercial (like low Earth Orbit?) After a time, didn't commercial fliers operate the US Airmail so that the US Army could focus on bigger things?

Space X and the idea of COTS preceded the Obama administration- lets all remember that- and wish Space X well.

Lightly staffed, flexible, less expensive access to Low earth orbit provided by a multitude of capable U.S. based players can only help our competitive position in the long run.

ISSvet: Sorry not good enough. Other launch profiles are announced and profiled completely. The use of the word "enemies" seems a bit paranoid. If the metrics are not known, how can the results bed judged ? These launches need to be very public and transparent.

hehe... Deer Hunter is a must-see movie, IMO, but definitely not easy watching. Slow starting, btw, but it pays off afterwards.

Cessna Driver, Tinker's got it 100% right. Given the history of the comments here, people will be nit-picking SpaceX no matter what they do.

SpaceX is perfectly fine giving a live webcast and not committing to a pre-launch schedule.

Holy cow tinker,

Where have I ever wished anything negative on any commercial endeavor? I was an X-prize foundation member years ago when the giggle factor was very high.

This is no time for secrecy when congress is going to be making huge decisions about the role such companies are to play in the future. We need a fully informed decision process.

I hope for a successful launch. Any rocket heading to space in name of exploration has my full support. PERIOD.

Regardless of outcome, I still do not support giving them NASA's job.

Supporting role yes. Star of the show? No way.
Too soon.

SpaceX is a private company. They don't have to share any information with the public. They've been careful with information in the past, controlling their PR when needed. Nothing surprising there.

I can assure you that they will be sharing considerable information in private with NASA (under the terms of the COTS agreement) and with potential qualified commercial customers.

I am not sure what you think is being withheld...the entire event is a test flight so it is rather fluid...they are web casting it.

Part of the problem of course is the folks who see a day delay and go "SpaceX is floundering"

Robert G. Oler

@ISSVet

Elon Musk comes across as a paranoid egomaniac at times like this. Most of his so-called "enemies" are folks with an interest in manned space flight who don't understand how NASA can be sending piles of money to a well-funded amateur with such a non-existent track record.

Space4US: SpaceX is doing an engineering test, not a publicity stunt. The only people they need to satisfy are themselves and their current and potential customers. Unless you or I are in one of those groups, we are in no position to make demands. Even people in those groups will probably be signing NDIs. That's how business is done.

Hypocrisy and iceage:

Thanks for the reference.

I guess I did know about the Russian Roulette scenes kind of second hand through parodies and such.

tinker

Folks:

According to spaceflightnow.com:

"Air Force Col. Ed Wilson, commander of the 45th Space Wing, formally approved the Falcon 9 rocket's flight termination system during a launch readiness review this afternoon, a military spokesperson said."

Woo Hoo! Go Falcon!

tinker

tinker, crazy eddie...

given the history of comments here huh? you mean all the bashing of ares-1x about the very end of the flight where the segments touched? the part where had there been a second stage engine that fired would have never happened...

You mean that whining by those nit-pickers? now they are getting their turn under the microscope.

it's just as expected for this launch don't you think ?

"We can thank people like you for any secrecy Spacex has imposed"

They've always been secretive. After the Falcon 1 failure where the booster hit the second stage, they cut the video off and released part of the video later.

They're just using the being attacked as an excuse. They've seen the way NASA programs like Constellation are attacked when they're open to public review.

This secrecy is more common to private companies (like BP) allowing them to hide things from the public eye. The public then only sees major events that can't be hidden or mainly their triumphs. The public disclosure and able to follow along is one thing that will be lost with this commercial approach.

Editor's note: It s a private company, dude. They can do anything they want in their product development. You are just a hater for/of anything/anyone linked to Obama. You need to get off that horse.

> Why are launch details and time being withheld ? NASA is very public

Wow these guys are clairvoyant.

J Web, your post is so rife with hostility and ignorance that it's hard to know where to start. Here goes...

Gobs of money? The Aries 1X, A.K.A. shuttle SRB, test flight ALONE cost more than SpaceX has spent to date. All of NASA's tiny COTS payments to SpaceX are predicated on meeting milestones, unlike the gigantous cost-plus contracts that go to the usual suspects.

Amateur? Uh... what? Software developer, billionaire, started a company in 2002 that has orbited two payloads. Let's see your resume.

No track record? If a long test program resulting in two flights to orbit equals no track record. Give us the long list of other companies that have done that on their own dime.

One of SpaceX's principals goes into the Astronaut Hall of Fame tomorrow. Others have worked in top positions at Boeing, ULA etc... Ah what's the use.

> Regardless of outcome, I still do not support giving them NASA's job.

Huh? Just what do you think NASA's job is, exactly? Launching stuff to LEO?

> Most of his so-called "enemies" are folks with an interest in manned space flight who don't understand how NASA can be sending piles of money to a well-funded amateur with such a non-existent track record.

You do realize that SpaceX's track record for the past 8 years has accomplished considerably more than MSFC has in the past 20 or so, and at orders of magnitude less cost, right?

Excellent comments Neuronexmachina.

Something had to be done to break the stagnation that has been going on with America's manned space program. We have had decades to build a replacement for the shuttle and it hasn't happened. The decision to end shuttle was made years ago and still we don't have a replacement that is qualified to fly people to space. Soon we (America), won't even have access to LEO, without depending on foreign countries to fly our astronauts.

We have stripped our R&D to build Ares 1 and here we are, canceling yet another program before completion. Don't get me wrong, the Constellation program, the way it was being done needed to be canceled. The program was/is unaffordable.

This is NASA's opportunity to start investing again in R&D and to concentrate on beyond LEO. Costs to LEO needs to be lowered substantially, if we are ever to move out to the planets in a sustainable way.

Elon Musk and the people at SpaceX are giving us that chance for lower costs. My hat goes off to them and others like them. We should all be cheering for SpaceX's success.

GO SPACEX!

Everyone here complains about bureaucracy. I've complained about it myself. But there is a reason some of it exists. After every accident, mishap, and close call the lessons learned are rolled into the bureaucracy. It is a pain in the ass, it gets in the way, and it saves lives. When you have a new company you don't have all of the lessons learned except that of the employees you hire.

Take Scaled Composites for example. They haven't put anyone into orbit yet but have managed to kill 3 engineers during a test. They learned a lesson about the dangers of testing and their bureaucracy increased a little.

The same will happen at Space X. As accidents happen and people get hurt or killed their bureaucracy will grow along with their costs.

sb023 -

The bashing was not of the performance of what flew.

It was of the fact that they called it an Ares 1...

It was a first stage only (dummy 2nd stage), and a 4-segment booster as well at that - the fifth segment was a dummy too.

In short - how many years of work to launch a Space Shuttle booster? At what cost?

The flight itself was fine, it just wasn't progress.

I read the other day this glory-story about the NASA transport crawler, how it has 2 ship motors driving it, and another 2 (different) doing hydraulic actuation, etc, etc. It dawned on me that most likely that are more people at NASA involved with the crawler than there are people at SpaceX.

What SpaceX has done already during its life, in terms of engineering and development, is quite frankly unmatched.

Gee, you guys think the weather could be a factor?

The field mills are going to be working overtime tomorrow.

Spacex and the Range are getting to know one another and it's not going well for Elon.

Elon needs to move launch ops to Vieques so he can do things his way.

Musk started the general NASA bashing in that Orphans of Apollo thing - the guy can dish it, but.......


For some background on his secretiveness:

Big plans for SpaceX
by Jeff Foust
Monday, November 14, 2005

Expecting that it can compete in this market, SpaceX has sued Boeing and Lockheed in federal court in California, seeking to prevent them from combining their rocket units in a joint venture called the United Launch Alliance, which would have a lock on $32 billion in Air Force launchings through 2011.

"SpaceX has the potential of saving the U.S. government $1 billion a year,"

Musk is not in a rush to take the company public because of the “overhead” associated with it, based on his experience with PayPal. “When you’re public it’s like painting a target on your head, saying ‘sue me.’”

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/497/1


Musk has been running his mouth and bashing existing US space programs for years, but my fav quote so far:

A Bold Plan to Go Where Men Have Gone Before
Published: February 5, 2006

IK: You've mentioned to me before about how you felt that there may be a limited period of time for humans to pursue space exploration. What did you mean by that?

EM: There is a sort of irony actually. Scientists and engineers tend to have a low birth rate. This is sort of side-note, but evolution might foster creationism because if those of scientific mind set have fewer and fewer kids relative to those who have a creationist mind set.

More optimistically, the Internet has created a much greater free flow of information than has existed in the past, so it's a littler harder to maintain an irrational viewpoint with the Internet out there. At least you have some access to the information that might contradict an irrational viewpoint, whereas in the past you had no access to it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/business/yourmoney/05rocket.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1


So, besides the taxpayer funded scrutiny he's under, he deserves every bit of scrutiny that he's entitled too!)

Editor's note: meanwhile you get to bash Musk with total anonymity - and no risk. He's out there hanging his butt on the line and doing something I doubt you could ever contemplate doing - much less pull off. I'll bet you'd be terrified to say these things with attribution to his face. Ain't the Internet wonderful?

"Everyone here complains about bureaucracy. I've complained about it myself. But there is a reason some of it exists. After every accident, mishap, and close call the lessons learned are rolled into the bureaucracy. It is a pain in the ass, it gets in the way, and it saves lives"

how did that work at NASA HSF between Challenger and Columbia?

Robert G. Oler

Veels geluk met die eerste vaart van die Valk.

Keith, I bet KSC PAO had to mention that it was unmanned given that the maiden flight of Ares I was to be crewed. Yes, you read that right, like STS, Ares I was to be crewed for the first flight. (It was not originally this way but timelines kept slipping.)

The arguments presented here against SpaceX are amusing. The point is not that SpaceX has some government money. The point is that SpaceX is developing a space transportation architecture that meets what it sees as it's own needs for making profit on space transportation. That's what capitalism is all about, and it builds on what many feel makes this country great. NASA isn't telling SpaceX what it has to produce (except a zero-level "get us to Station"). That's really a stunning development. You do what's best for you, and we'll buy it if it works for us.

Look at it this way. To U.S. space enthusiasts, our space program is predicated on being pioneering, with identifiable "heros". We haven't seen a lot of pioneers or heroes in a long time from HSF at NASA.. With SpaceX, the U.S. is pioneering a new way of accessing space, probably for much less money than we could ever have otherwise expected from NASA. Real pioneering. Other countries probably wouldn't do it! Elon Musk is, if anything, a real hero in all this, though amusingly he gets to be one without ever planing his rear on top of a rocket. I guess also he bought that title, but historical heroes in this country are often self-funded. Pioneering and heroes make us proud as a country. That's pretty much where we are with SpaceX.

The crucial point is whether civil space exploration is a national security need. Such needs are best met by a country, not a company. But it's not. America doesn't need civil space to be a nation, though it sure is nice to have. That being the case, let's go with the flow, and see if capitalism works as well as we tell the world it does.

"how did that work at NASA HSF between Challenger and Columbia?"

NASA has never had the same fatal error occur twice.

"It s a private company, dude. They can do anything they want in their product development."

I believe that's what I said. That's one of the problems with a commercial company vs NASA. You've complained about NASA hiding things. It will likely be worse with commercial companies. And as with companies like BP, problems can be hidden until you either don't meet a schedule or you have a major event.

"You are just a hater for/of anything/anyone linked to Obama."

Not true. If you would read a previous message of mine, I wish SpaceX well. I'm all for the commercial industry providing human spaceflight capability. My preference would be to be making this when we have more facts and the companies have more experience.

My complaint is that the program of record was canceled with no replacement in place. People are putting a lot of faith and making decision on some proposals that haven't been analyzed or properly vetted.

This is a bit like picking the contractor that will take us to Mars. You're just asking for major delays and huge cost overruns.

"NASA has never had the same fatal error occur twice."

OH YES they did. The failure in both Columbia and Challenger was management (all this experience everyone talks about) not dealing correctly with defective hardware.

Not in the history of the shuttle program has NASA had some hardware fail that could have destroyed the vehicle, that they did not already know about.

Robert G. Oler

"My complaint is that the program of record was canceled with no replacement in place."

cots is the replacement for Ares...are did you mean a replacement in place that all the folks working on Ares could simply move to? No, there isnt one of those, the object is to lower cost.

Robert G. Oler

Hilda:

I think the term "amusing" is a little soft, I'm only laughing sometimes . At other times I can't believe what I'm reading. As I've said before, what Spacex is doing is the finest example of the "American Way" you can get. Go back, waaayyy back in American history to the development of the railroads. Government sponsored competitions, advancement of technology by private companies, co-operation between those companies to create a national network. Sound familiar?

I totally agree that NASAs direction is the American Way at work and Spacex is the American Dream (soon to) come true.

Detractors are either against the government as a whole and/or against capitalism as an idea.

Thanks for the clear thoughts. Keep 'em coming!

tinker

If find it amusing that fanbois who are quick to criticize NASA lash back at any comment they perceive as negative towards their favorite rocket. And for the record, vice versa. Grow up, some of you.

I have some reservations about SpaceX, but I am also hopeful that they will succeed not only today (or tomorrow, weather is currently NO GO) but in the long run.

"That's one of the problems with a commercial company vs NASA. You've complained about NASA hiding things. It will likely be worse with commercial companies. And as with companies like BP, problems can be hidden until you either don't meet a schedule or you have a major event."

That old BP analogy is way off base.....not sure who thought that one up. BP doesn't have a contract with the US Gov't to provide services.
A major part of NASA's job in this new LEO access world will be to assure the safety of its cargo,astronauts,and the ISS......For NASA to do that job it will (should) have insight ability down to the vendor level, if required. There will probably (should) be a mechanism in those contracts to penalize the launch service provider for service provider-induced launch delays.

"A major part of NASA's job in this new LEO access world will be to assure the safety of its cargo,astronauts,and the ISS......For NASA to do that job it will (should) have insight ability down to the vendor level, if required"

The problem is that as a commercial company, to keep costs down they would need to eliminate as much NASA oversight and interference as possible. What drives costs up are external reviews, design changes, and delays.

Folks:


YYYYEEEEESSSSSS.......

Beautiful launch! History was made today with the first Falcon 9. I'm sure things worked out better then Spacex could have hoped for. Many milestones were achieved and it's time to move forward.

tinker

Robert,

I'm just trying to be honest here and not start a flame war. What I am trying to explain is how a bureaucracy grows. It is very easy for it to grow in a government program. When something goes wrong instead of just an engineering analysis and fixing the actual technical problem they always "checks" to make sure it never happens again.

I am worried about what is going to happen when a SpaceX rocket fails and there is a near miss or even a crew dies. Do you think Congress will just let them fix the technical problem and keep flying? Nope. More oversight and more bureaucracy and more cost.

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This page contains a single entry by Keith Cowing published on June 3, 2010 8:00 PM.

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