The Smell of Election Year Politics

It does kind of stink, doesn't it?

And why is the erstwhile Manned Spaceflight Center even located in Houston, again?

The administration got itself into this mess and, quite simply, what goes around comes around. All this could have been done with a redirection in Constellation and reasonable additional funding (way below noise level in terms of overall government spending) but, no, it unilateraly chose for a wholesale cancellation thinking it'd score easy political points.

"And why is the erstwhile Manned Spaceflight Center even located in Houston, again?"

because it was important that the launch facility and control center be separate from each other due to the threat of hurricanes wiping out both...

or at the time LBJ was Vice President, from Texas and a Congressman named Albert needed some spending in his district and JFK needed a lot of Texas votes and the land was "free".

pick which one you think was more important . I wonder that myself everytime I drive past the Johnson Spaceflight Center or jog past the Albert Postal Annex.

Robert G. Oler

Smells like Texas...

What these people fighting don't realize is that no matter how much they scream about these issues, NASA is far more than likely get less money next year, not more.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703703704575276931429180508.html

What stinks is his space plan!
Let me be clear with regard to Florida, what he did to cancel Constellation will win him ZERO votes in Florida.
Had he kept Constellation I guarantee you he would have gained votes.
His 40 million also will win him ZERO votes as well.
All of us in Florida know that there are NO other similar positions near the Space Center, so job assistance will either move people into other careers or out of state, but it won't help this area at all. That's the facts.
I also know a few people personally that have had enough of the whole NASA/political BS, basically they are OVER IT.
Those good degree'd engineers that have been out here for a while actually want to get laid off and get a nice severance and go back to school for something in the medical field (for example)because they KNOW they can actually get/maintain a job in that field.
With the NASA B/S know one knows from year to year whether a program will still be around.
Nice going Nobama....
And yes, it is his fault because while Bush cancelled shuttle he named a replacement program that shuttle people could move to. As you all know, not even Obama knows who will or won't have jobs, how many, what kind, etc...
Bush also gave shuttle people years to make the change. Obama just wants to cancel Constellation now with no place to jump to...
Meaning, it's not like the new program will get up and running with RFP's and the like for people to move over to, at least they haven't said that.
Instead they just want everything cancelled now before the new "Obama R&D" program is up and running.
It definately stinks, and Congress knows it !!

Live by political favors, die by political favors. It goes both ways folks...

Some obvious points:

Obama is a politician first. A lot of people thought he was something new and different more with an eye towards peacemaking and non-partisanship, but that was just a lot of smoke. He is a politician. And actually pretty much a neophyte politician at that.

The people who are guiding Obama's Vision on space, and I am not sure if its Garver or Holdren, but it is pretty clear they have not a clue of what they are doing.

Although space has a small clientele and unlikely to make a big difference, Obama screwed up and lost a lot of his space support, regardless of where they are located.

I know Obama is a politician but here's a shocking thought... maybe he approved the NASA FY 2011 budget because he thought it was the right thing to do even though it was not politically expedient.

It's been known to happen.

"Had he kept Constellation I guarantee you he would have gained votes."

Hmmm I would like to see some polls that say that because I dont think it is accurate.

Go look at the depth (and it was deep) of Obama's victory in 08 in FL and where the red/blue line was...and it is obvious that the "SpaceCoast" was not a blue zone in that election.

Go look at the tone and direction of most (not all but most) of the protest in the "save our jobs" efforts in the Space Coast (and here in Houston) and one gets a sense that the issues are far deeper then just jobs. NOW if one losses ones job to the politics/policies of a person that one didnt like anyway...that in politics is called "reinforcement"

But the converse is not really accurate. If one keeps a job but it is due to the politics/policies of a person who one doesnt like anyway...then the odds are great that the job will be attributed to something else...and the other "dislikes" will float to the top.

That is what makes the Houston Chronicle ed so entertaining. It states a reality (Obama carried Harris and just broke even in the voting around the JSC) but that shift (from say 2000) is along issues far more complex then just "space policy" as the voting districts around JSC are far more diverse then just "space employers". And most of the politics of Harris county care little about the Clear Lake Area.

Texas is going purple as the cities get larger and the rural population less of a percentage of the vote. FLorida is doing the same thing. This is why Rubio is struggling in a three way race.

Robert G. Oler

"And yes, it is his fault because while Bush cancelled shuttle he named a replacement program that shuttle people could move to. As you all know, not even Obama knows who will or won't have jobs, how many, what kind, etc..."

Alot of folks need to re-read the 2004 Vision.
From the President's Vision: "NASA requires cost-effective vehicles that may be reused, have systems that could be applied to more than one destination, and are highly reliable and *****need only small ground crews.*****
Does that sound like it was going to be good news for KSC even if Constellation contiued ?

"And yes, it is his fault because while Bush cancelled shuttle he named a replacement program that shuttle people could move to."

Bush named a replacement program that he consistently underfunded. That meant schedule slips and there weren't going to be many flights for a long time, which translates into lost of lots of jobs at places like KSC. That was precisely the folly of mandating Shuttle cancellation before you positively had Ares I up and running. At this point there is little than can be done to bring the schedules back in to justify maintaining a standing KSC army for Constellation flights. Another fact is shuttle was a more or less operated as an operational vehicle not a developmental vehicle, which Ares I would not be until at least 2016 by the most optimistic schedules. Shuttle employs an entirely different work force than what Constellation needs right now - designers and so forth. So giving KSC a few million makes complete sense.
I am confused by the Houston situation. I would expect there would be losses in Houston due to Shuttle closure, regardless of the fate of Constellation. However, I think some folks are "playing politics" by intentionally combining expected Shuttle losses with Constellation cancellation losses. After reviewing the proposed new plans for work at JSC, I'm quite surprised that they're claiming they would still see a net of 7000 losses due cancellation of Constellation. That points to a significantly inefficient engineering organization if that's the case considering that the Constellation work to date has been somewhat limited in scope. I'm curious as to how many MSFC has on Constellation in comparison. I'm also curious as to what job losses JSC was projecting with the old plan where ISS was going into the drink in 5 years along with Shuttle termination. Finally, there's an issue of scale and purpose - until Ares V is approaching flight readiness, you really don't have a lunar program and you wouldn't have much use for a Shuttle-size standing army.

Bush named a replacement program that he consistently underfunded.

Myth. NASA was given money, when the ESAS architecture came out that everyone knew was going to cost a lot more money than the chief architect claimed, NASA became a non priority in the Bush administration's tech and science plans.

Marbuger explained this in his 2006 Goddard speech but no one was listening.

Today on the radio out here in CA the administration announced $19M dollars for the 4000 workers that are losing their jobs at the NUMMI plant in Fremont CA.

From what I understand Elon Musk and Tesla Auto bought the Numi plant for Tesla production.
I hope this will help out the workers at Numi.

"I am confused by the Houston situation. I would expect there would be losses in Houston due to Shuttle closure, regardless of the fate of Constellation."

The original plan was Constellation would use half the workforce of SHuttle at JSC. This draw down would have been accomplished through normal attrition and didn't require any or minimal layoffs. With the cancellation of Constellation that half that would be transitioning to will have to be layed off.

"After reviewing the proposed new plans for work at JSC, I'm quite surprised that they're claiming they would still see a net of 7000 losses due cancellation of Constellation."

Problem is that nobody knows how many people are required to do this new work and the contracts to support the NASA civil servants (who are safe and won't be layed off) won't be in place for several years. So maybe the jobs will return in several years but the people with the experience and knowledge who can do them will be long gone.

"That points to a significantly inefficient engineering organization if that's the case considering that the Constellation work to date has been somewhat limited in scope."

Actually most of JSC work isn't engineering it's operations. There is a small cadre of engineers supporting the development efforts and a small cadre of flight controllers supporting ops concept development and reviewing designs to make sure they are operationally viable. The vast majority of the people and work that the Shuttle workforce would be transitioning into would be the development of the flight products required to fly the vehicle (ground tools in MCC for montoring systems and making decisions, MCC displays, procedures, flight rules, training plans for crews and flight ocntrollers,etc.).

To the victors, goes the spoils. Waiting with anticipation for the day when we to send Obama back to Chicago.

"The original plan was Constellation would use half the workforce of SHuttle at JSC."

see this is one reason that the effort is floundering.

The original plan should have been to reduce cost as much as possible by using as few people...the entire effort is to reduce cost. But I dont think that ever entered into any managers calculus.

It is sort of stunning when one reads the Jeff Hanley memos where this far in the process he is musing about expending the solid first stage "if it cuts cost". (the thought is a paraphrase but the quote is direct).

As late as 2009 Hanley had apparently never figured out the trade ofs.

A goal of Constellation should have been to cut the cost of a flight by half or more particularly in view of the enormous development cost.

that is why the program is ending.

Robert G. Oler