Kepler Co-I Sasselov Blames Media For Misunderstanding

Keith's 27 Jul 6:28 pm EDT note: This was just posted on the Kepler website and at NASA.gov: "Earth-size is not Earth-like: the TED Talk by Dimitar Sasselov: Two weeks ago, I gave a talk at TED Global 2010 which was very well received, but caused confusion. I talked about Earth-like planets, which many people would equate to Earth-size and "habitable." Earth-size and Earth-like is certainly not the same. Take the example of Venus, an Earth-size planet whose surface will melt lead. I understand that the term "Earth-like" was misleading to most of the media coverage. The Kepler mission is designed to discover Earth-size planets but it has not yet discovered any; at this time we have found only planet candidates. The June 2010 Kepler data release with 306 candidates is an encouraging first step along the road to Kepler's ultimate goals, and specifically - the goal to determine the frequency of Earth-size planets in and near the habitable zone. However, these are candidates, not systems that have been verified sufficiently to be considered true planets. It will take more years of hard work to get to our goal, but we can do it."

That's all that Sasselov (NASA) has to say? It took two days to generate this? Dimitar Sasselov's Kepler statement puts the blame on other people (media are people too) misunderstanding him - not on what he clearly said. He clearly said "The Galaxy is rich in small, Earth-like planets" and "the statistical result is that planets like our own Earth are out there". These are rather bold statements for mere "candidate" planets. Moreover these words clearly evoke specific concepts in one's mind i.e. worlds - like - Earth.

If Dimitar Sasselov is going to formally represent the mission to the public then he needs vastly improve his speaking skills beyond what he currently possesses. Moreover, he needs to be reminded that this is a project funded to the tune of hundreds of millions of tax dollars. His audience is not some little club of elites but rather everyone, everywhere. Lastly, he needs to understand that 99.9% of humanity is not versed in the nuances, subtleties, and jargon that he and his fellow science majors use every day. He used the phrase "Earth-like" and he needs to admit that he made the error. For his audience to get the impression that they got is perfectly understandable given the words that he used.

This should be an object lesson to the Kepler team - and to NASA - as to how NOT to take a tantalizing topic and present it to the public. Sasselov bungled the delivery such that the world could not clearly understand what is - and is not proven as fact - yet.

Keith's 27 Jul 8:58 pm EDT update: there is now a lengthier post by Sasselov here. I only learned about it from an alert reader. NASA PAO has not bothered to tell the media and no mention is made on any Kepler website. So I guess you have to stumble across it or just happen to see it flash by on Twitter. The essense of my complaint is the same - Sasselov claims that this was all a misunderstanding by the media - not poor choice of words and lack of through explanation on his part such that non-astronomers (i.e. virtually everyone) can understand. Fess up Dimitar, you said what you said.

Keith's 28 Jul 10:54 am EDT update: It is rather odd that NASA Kepler and NASA PAO are shy about alerting the media to the presence Sasselov's comments (both short and long versions). No media advisory, press release, or email update have been issued. This is especially odd given the effect that his initial comments had and how the media portrayed them. Its almost as if the Kepler folks do not care to correct the record - thus letting stand the original interpretation by the media. Once again - remedial PR training for the Kepler team is long over due.

- Kepler Team Needs To Take PR 101, earlier post
- Kepler Co-Investigator Spills The Beans: Lots of Earth-like Planets, earlier post


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At this point, since half the cat is out of the bag, the Kepler teams should divulge:

- How many candidates they have
- How many are full eclipsing binaries (which are easily detectable as has been pointed out in other threads)
- Therefore, how many are barely eclipsing (since there's no preferential plane to solar systems, this is a statistical result
- How many of the candidates from the second data download show periods - Therefore, what is their best guess and confidence (e.g. 3 sigma error estimate) at this time for the number of rocky inner-orbit planets that are not impossibly hot.

Those are significant results which they have no reason to hide. I don't care for the identities of the individual star systems. They can keep those till they are confirmed.

In his speech he should have rigorously defined what "Earth-like" meant. But I don't think it is a big deal

Why does he "need" to admit it? You may need him to, but it does not appear that he needs to.

I don't think it's a big deal either. Moreover, on his slide (at 08:19 on the TED video) he is showing a plot of Planet number vs Planet size, and it becomes clear that "like Earth", "like Neptune"..."like Jupiter" refers only to size. In addition to that, he is clearly saying that these are candidates; so did other folks in June (before Sasselov!):

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/kepler-spacecraft-finds-hundreds-possible-planets-100618.html

So they say that Kepler has 700 (sic!) Earth-like (yes, the wording is the same), but it wasn't on a TED talk, so people paid less attention...

Surely, there will be false positives, but there is no reason that there will be more false positives per true positives for Earth-sized that for Jupiter-sized planets. In that case, Sasselov's statement "The statistical result is loud and clear" makes perfect sense for me.

The use of the term "like-Earth" on that chart was retarded. If anyone's looking for a cheap soundbite, a chart with a bar that says "like-Earth" standing tall at 150 and a big intro about scientific revolutions is striking gold.

Earth-like is astronomer jargon in a speech that was very, very clearly aimed at non-astronomers.

To him it means "less than double Earth's diameter".

Everyone else is going to hear "trees, beasts and lakes".

Just a fact.

For a while it seemed like every single week on Space.com or elsewhere, they'd announce "New Earth-like Planet Found!" and its some star-hugging hellhole with no air.

Considering that this data is from the first few months of observations, I can say that exactly 0% of the planets he's found are "Earth-like", because they're all airless deserts with daytime temperatures that melt lead.

People get desensitized to this very fast. People are already treating it like yet another "Scientist makes bold claims, turns out they're junk" story.

OK, that's was a painful read.

The one hundred million figure came from the Drake Equation and the data has no effect on it???

I watched the speech twice, and while he wasn't clear on how he got that figure, I never even considered that he used the Drake Equation.

Hey, I can use the Drake Equation too.

One hundred million stars... Times... Three hundred percent chance there are alien civilizations.. Oh my God! There are two other civilizations right here! And I used math to prove it, so it must be right!

"One hundred million stars... Times... Three hundred percent chance there are alien civilizations.. Oh my God! There are two other civilizations right here! And I used math to prove it, so it must be right!"

Are you sure that's the Drake Equation?

Hey, I can use the Drake Equation too.
One hundred million stars... Times... Three hundred percent chance there are alien civilizations.. Oh my God! There are two other civilizations right here! And I used math to prove it, so it must be right!

Joe, I gather you're referring to the end of Sasselov's blog post. I'm not sure what line of logic you used, but I assure you Sasselov is no idiot.

Why don't you try again with the assumption he knows how to work the math much better than you do, and see if you can find a way that it makes better sense. If so, foo on him for not managing to communicate clearly what he meant. If not, foo on you for using shallow thinking to smear a reputable working astronomer.

Keith's 27 Jul 8:58 pm EDT update: there is now a lengthier post by Sasselov here. I only learned about it from an alert reader.

Keith, in the Kepler news announcement, at the bottom, it gives that same link. Perhaps they snuck that in after you first saw it?

I don't think this is media-slamming directly, but it could seem that way if you're sensitized -- as you probably are, I think understandably. I read this as almost defensive scientist-speak, basically just acknowledging the difference between what he meant and what you (and many others) heard. He doesn't apologize for his role in the misunderstanding, a step which I would have recommended. But he didn't ask me ;-).

Indeed, he wrote this to me:

Dear Joe,
if I may - thank you for your comment - yes, I used the first half of the Drake equation, which unlike the second half of said equation, is based on measurements with error bars. See below the gory details.
So, I would argue that that estimate is not converting biases into
a number with false legitimacy.
What do you think?

Cheers,
Dimitar

N = n_g * f_new * f_low * f_se * f_HZ

where

N = number of planets with habitable potential in the Milky Way galaxy;

n_g = 200 x 10e9 - total number of stars in the galaxy;
f_new = 0.1 - fraction of stars with enough heavy elements for
super-Earth planets to form;
f_low = 0.9 - fraction of low-mass stars that live long enough for
life;
f_se = 0.3 - fraction of super-Earths orbiting such stars (based
on the HARPS-South survey (Mayor et al., Astron. Astrophys. 507, 487 (2009) - 30% ±10%);

f_HZ = 0.02 - fraction of super-Earth in the habitable zone of their star.

N = 1.08 x 10e8 planets

I never much liked this TED thing anyway. It might have started as something interesting, but it's quickly turned into a Davos of the geeks, so to speak. And the "diversification" to all sorts of places and topics... How can there be talks by Jamie Oliver, Burt Rutan, and those guys in the same kind of frame?
The whole format is slanted towards style and effect rather than substance, so it's no surprise scientists fall for it.

Even with that though, I agree with the comment "Joe" posted on the Kepler website, this guy kinda let his hunger for fame get the better of him. He can't have it both ways. Very sad to see even astronomers are getting into the celeb trash culture now.
For goodness's sake, there was a time when you were thought a pantsy at astronomy conventions if you didn't use LaTeX to make your slides and if you use -typed- text or a laptop to project. And now they go to TED to make fancy videos...

Wouarnud.

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