The Senate NASA Compromise: A Hinge of History?

Frank Sietzen Jr.: Last week, the Senate Commerce, Science and Space Committee marked up a draft of a proposed FY2011 Authorization bill for NASA. That bill maintains the Obama administration's top line budget for the civil space agency, but otherwise it contains virtually none of the individual funding areas for human spaceflight that the administration had sought.

But it's my contention that the bill, whether or not it ever gets passed into law, is an historic development in legislative space affairs. Back in 2004, in our book "New Moon Rising", Keith Cowing and I used the phrase "opening a hinge of history" to describe how the Columbia Space Shuttle disaster provided an opening for an historic new direction in space policy. We initially perceived that direction as being the first era of human spaceflight since 1972 that was not to be dominated by the Shuttle program. But what really emerged would eventually become the so-called "Vision for Space Exploration".

We also wrote that NASA was given an extraordinary opportunity by President George W. Bush, to embark on a whole new space objective, just 10 and a half months after killing seven astronauts in a highly public catastrophe. It would seem that the VSE is now dead. But what follows it is not exactly what President Barack Obama wanted, either. In acting independent from the Obama Administration in crafting a space budget that interprets Flexible Path in a slightly different way than Obama's original FY2011 proposal of February 1st, it marks an historic departure for the Senate.

Here's why:

As observed by reporter Terence Samuel, Congressional oversight became extinct once President George W. Bush took office after the Florida recount in 2001. Think of all of the major issues of the time: the decision to invade Iraq and Afghanistan, the development of a new Homeland Security bureaucracy, the torture revealed at Abu Graib, scandals at the IRS, in nearly every case Congress abdicated its Constitutional oversight requirements.

Oh yes there were hearings, independent commissions established and reported out (remember the 9-11 Commission and their hugely popular report, published as a book? Whatever happened to their recommendations? You guessed it...) In an article in Foreign Affairs magazine Thomas E. Mann and Norman J. Ornstein, two highly respected Congressional scholars wrote "In the past six years congressional oversight of the executive across a wide range of policies but especially on foreign and national security policy has virtually collapsed."

A Washington, DC conference on the future of Congressional leadership held just before the 2006 elections in which Democrats recaptured control of the House and Senate observed that in today's Senate, the typical members were "mavericks, party hacks, and ideologues", rather than the statesmen for whom the Senate was conceived.

If all of this is true, then the action of the Senate with regard to NASA is all the more remarkable. The language of the compromise bill passed unanimously takes something from everybody. It slashed the administration's request for commercial crew services as well as advanced technology demonstrators, potentially alienating the White House and Florida officials who were looking towards the new commercial space industry to create jobs that could ease some of the losses that canceling Constellation might cause.

It took the administration's restructuring of the Orion CEV into a rescue vehicle for the ISS and made it into a "Multipurpose Crew Transportation Vehicle", basically the CEV by another name, also capable of flying to the ISS. The effectively makes a government competitor to the commercial crew vehicles whose development funds were cut to pay for it. By cutting so much of the planned technology budget, it risked prolonging development of "game changing" systems that could advance human exploration beyond Earth orbit.

Yet within minutes of the Senate press conference announcing the compromise bill, both the Obama administration and NASA announced their support for the bill.

Even if one expects much of these funds to be restored either by Senate appropriators or the House, this was an extraordinary achievement for a Senate normally locked in partisan gridlock.

So my questions to NASAWATCH readers:

-How do you think this compromise came about? Who gave what and when?

-What do you predict Sen. Shelby and the approps committee will do with it, and what is the House likely to change?

And, lastly, if you were NASA, how would you go about building a new public outreach and legislative coalitions to pass the bill?

Let's have a thoughtful conversation that mirrors the seemingly careful and politically artful actions of this past week.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Peggy Noonan notes the 50th anniversary of the publication of Harper Lee's novel To Kill A Mockingbird. The lead character, Atticus Finch, was a sort of father figure, the wise and mature adult that watched over his child as she slept at night "and would be there when Jem waked up in the morning", in other words still engaged in the day to day work that would follow. A rooted, unflappable solid presence in the life of his family and community, whom you always knew where he stood but without blustering. In the life of his community, he would always be engaged for the long haul. Noonan laments the absence of such adults in today's political climate and discourse. But she's wrong in the case of the Senate's NASA bill.

There were "adults" on both sides working behind the scenes to develop and sell this compromise, even if there are to be changes made ahead. No posturing, no noise, no lines-drawn-in-the-sand. Just a compromise that, on the face of it now, appears everyone can and will embrace. For the first time in years, the Senate has taken an administration proposal and made substantive changes to it that a bipartisan coalition supports-and the White House, too. This was not done when America went to war in 2003, nor was the Senate able to make substantial cuts to federal spending proposed by Bush in his second term, or the tax cuts for the wealthy that added to the deficit.

But after five months of hearings that generally failed to shed much more light on the Obama space proposals, the Senate committee, largely acting in secret, rearranged the boxes of the Obama plan while restoring that part of Constellation with the most support: the Orion capsule and a new booster to launch it different from the previously faulted Ares rocket family.

If this isn't a hinge of history I don't know what is. The true story of how these developments came together, as someone recently observed, would make a great future PhD. thesis, or a book. On the oft chance I should live so long, I'm taking good notes. And listening for the ones that will be there, still engaged, when we all "wake up in the morning".

Thoughts?


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Just remember folks, that which isn't in the bill, is really up to interpretation. For instance, the non-stating of the Ares I rocket doesn't mean it's canceled or, a heavy lift vehicle doesn't mean Ares V or IV or whatever it was going to be is cancelled either. This is just politics or a way to put Obama's name on it without really changing much from the status quo. Just wait until the real details come out. I have a feeling not much is going to be changing from a launch architecture point of view.

I think the Senate "compromise" is largely meant to save jobs. I don't think this compromise is aimed at moving us forward. I do see that someone really wants a BFR (large rocket). The mission should be defined first - otherwise, this compromise is as much a "Ready! Fire! Aim!" approach as the one it is supposed to replace.

Your comment on competition from the government reminded me of these items in the 2005 U.S. National Space Transportation Policy:

---

Section IV

a) Purchase commercially available U.S. space transportation products and services to the maximum extent possible, consistent with mission requirements and applicable law;

b) ...

c) ...

d) Refrain from conducting activities with commercial applications that preclude, deter, or compete with U.S. commercial space transportation activities, unless required by national security;

---


I can't speak much to the first two questions, but I do have an opinion on the last one. Note that I only have a broad overview of what is in the bill; I last read a version several months ago and I'm not certain about recent changes.

But what should NASA do to involve the public to pass the bill? Well, I see it this way. I rather liked VSE when it came out. The idea of "Moon, Mars, Beyond" made perfect sense. But as the details came out about how we were going to achieve those goals, I became less enthused. "Apollo on steroids" was not an exciting new direction (yes, I know parts of that was announced in the same speech. My enthusiasm tempered quickly.) And even though I worked a little on Constellation, it was a program that I felt didn't go in the right direction.

Now Congress has given us a bill with broadly defined goals. They are good goals, but the specifics still need worked out. And while engineers with years of experience will (and probably should) decide those details, this really is a great opportunity for NASA to involve the public. To get high school students, college students, and people early in their NASA/contractor careers together and say, "You are going to be working on these projects for the next 30 years with us. How to you want to accomplish these goals?"

It won't be easy. You'll probably get a lot of stupid answers. But some will be good. And then NASA can take those ideas, and create a good detailed plan out of them. Something that when Congress asks, "What are you doing?" NASA can specifically point at and say, "THIS." And whatever THIS is, it will have been decided with the input of thousands of people who have a vested interest in working towards those goals.

Maybe not a great idea, and maybe I didn't describe it well. But I think it would be better than ESAS.

Frank,

Great article.

I think one factor is that space exploration, especially human space exploration, reminds folks that we are a nation of pioneers built on frontiers.

Frontiers by their very nature require folks to work together to create win-win solutions. That is why the original policy which was perceived as ending NASA's HSF mission received such a sharp negative response, because like the image of NASA astronauts going to the frontier its something most American's take for granted, just like Apple pies and small town life as being symbolic of American and worth preserving. And the belief it was going to be lost under the new policy was too much for the Senate to give in to.

It looks like again the idea of NASA is bringing out the best in America and creating hope of a better future, which is something well needed.

Hopefully the spirit of the Senate compromise will spread to the rest of the space advocate community who will support it and as a result, in the near future, we will see both the Dragon and Orion docked next to each other at the ISS.


Keith: In answer to your question, I refer you to the comments by Senator Nelson at the very beginning of the Senate hearing (not the press conference) where he named 3 Senate staffers who he identified as the ones who deserve credit for making this miracle happen.

Now my two questions for you:

(1) What is this Space Launch System HLV supposed to look like? How are they going to create a mini-Ares V in only 5 years and 11.5 billion? In order to get buy-off from everyone, there must be a real, viable plan with a realistic project timeline and budget.

(2) Where is the actual authorization bill that they approved, rather than the preliminary markup. The preliminary version stated that the HLV should be initially sized for cis-lunar space, and specifically mentioned manned lunar surface missions, so it is not clear that it ruled out a return to the Moon.

Before this Senate subcommittee bill compromise, the ObamaSpace plan was considered by many an 'mission to no where'.

Now it's a mission to no where , but you get to take a big rocket with you .

Defining a rocket before a mission? Dropping new technology money that was to foster the ease of a mission?

Huh?

The NASA/WH/Congress/OSTP/OMB relationship is in full dysfunctional bloom.

Disclaimer: I am the Queens County Chairman emeritus of the Independence Party of New York State. As such I have a good idea of how the political process works. However, My political contacts on the federal level are minimal (three house persons and their staff’s a couple of White House staffers, and one Senate staffer.. none of whom have any Interest in space). Consequently the following is my personal opinion of what is going down. My personal view is that there is a 70% chance that the FY2011 NASA budget will be a clean CR of the 2010 budget. This is a combination of the fact that there is so little time to come to an agreement, and the fact that there is a fundamental difference between the White House and congressional positions. I expect a rerun of the fight going into the FY2012 budget. Ultimately the White House will “win” , as they simply care less about the outcome, and the aerospace corporations and there congressional representatives need to move on. It is important to remember that while space advocates may spend some time attending to law and rule making, the corporations spend every day attending to law and rule making, and they don’t do that in the public interest.

Q--How do you think this compromise came about? Who gave what and when?

A—The white house was informed but not consulted. Senator Nelson’ view was and is that the space program belongs to a set of political and industrial interests whose opinions are the only ones that matter. Those interests did not ask for a revolution and they aren’t interested in one. That institutional struggle is far more important to the Senate and there corporate masters than anything as trivial as national space policy. I would like to recommend a book here “The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism” by Naomi Klein. NASA’ post Apollo history of expensive failure after expensive failure, has not been a failure in the eyes of the corporations who got the contracts, only to the American people. Far from being an exemplar of mature political leadership, the Senate’ actions in arriving at this “compromise” are craven sellouts of the public interest to the corporate interests. The Senate bill is a purely political document meant to keep the gravy train moving along the same old track. Any compromise involved was purely between the various senators at the various stops along the gravy trains track. The objective was to pay lip service to the administrations program while cutting it’s legs off. As such it is a good place to start (to quote Lori Garver). So was concord bridge.

Q--What do you predict Sen. Shelby and the approps committee will do with it, and what is the House likely to change?

A--The Senate appropriations committee will make some minor changes in funding (non in the interests of the administrations program), just to affirm their support for the Nelson bill. The House is more interesting. The House is angry in the extreme with the Senate and the White House over their high handed way of dealing with the House on virtually every issue. Time and time again the House has been asked to make politically expensive votes only to be hung out to dry by the Senate and the White house. Many House members already know they will not be returning next year and many more expect so. I think they will be in much more of a mood to buck the system. That dynamic is institutionally more important to them than anything as trivial as national space policy. The White House has an opportunity here to tweak the Senate bill into something more to their liking. I think the White House is willing to accept evolutionary progress toward their goals, but not a counter revolution (currently embodied in the Senate Bill).

Q--And, lastly, if you were NASA, how would you go about building a new public outreach and legislative coalitions to pass the bill?

A--Of course it is not NASA’ business to build legislative coalition, however they always have and will continue to take the political process into planning for success. I would expect them to distribute contracts to those companies and institutions in localities where the federal political representatives have shown an interest in the space program. Public outreach is problematic. Do you really want an alert and oriented public around the space program? The public has a certain fantasy about what the space program is and isn’t and it serves the interests of the national space effort that they continue to have that fantasy. Do you really want a half educated public involved with what NASA/DOD should be doing in space? NASA should do whatever it can to inform the public as to what it is doing and why that adds up to Star Trek. Given how little NASA has to spend on public outreach, they should depend heavily on the web, and outreach to media. The one major thing they should do differently is to pressure the white house to push major new outlets to assign serious Space/Science reporters who will gain a nuanced view of what is going on in space. It is really their job to inform the public.

Good article.

The story of how the Bill the Senate Committee passed last week would be very interesting. It was a careful and well-thought-out response to a plan that wasn't going anywhere, and "save CxP" wasn't gaining enough traction.

It looks a lot like a proposed Senate bill from a few months ago that was mainly written to extend the Shuttle a few months, then it became a full blown plan to take charge of the situation.

very thoughtful answer GREeveret,
If I where the white house i would be talking to senate and house leadership, ultimate they control what bills come up and when, the house and senate WHIP does the cajoling at this point and most folks who post ob these types of forums ignore the fact that most of those folks up there in DC land are like your confessionals don't care.They might go along with a committee vote but just again they will listen to say speaker Pelose, its about,whats in it for me?
if I where the white house I would get the senate and house leadership to place in the DOD budget the ACES upper stage development,same language that is in the NASA 2011 proposal, the upper stage must be compatible with all users in the space community,IE DOD/NASA/commercial.I would place part of the fuel depot and spy/sensor spacecraft servicing technology demonstrators in the black or DOD budget.
keep the senate language, Thal shall not tampereth with the MAP,build your heavy lift at 70 tons payload around the existing facility.
human rate one of the existing EELV.
side mount with Orion light as a fall back measure to the commercial crew.
AFTER 2016 use the ULA ideas for lunar and/or flexible path,for then you might have money freed up to do this and the ULA ideas can be used on both side mount and EELV.
2016 Orion lite ISS
2018 Orion Lite block 1 does a lunar flyby
2020 Orion block II does langrange reconnaissance and a fast return
inline at this point combined with Orion deep space at this point will eat your budgetary lunch,will not happen by 2016 and will lead to no commercial crew or technology demonstraters.
I think the white house will add these things back in,
side mount will be cargo only at first,for ISS missions.commercial crew(just barley)Commercial crew and side mount is $12 billion so that should tell you what the reality is right there!
after 2020 inline is needed only if fuel depot fails.
if we did build a inline( we will have the money in the 2020's to evolve the side mount) it would make some( but not much since)since to build an all liqued ET/EELV hybrid vehicle like the monster being discussed over at NASASPACEFLIGHT, it would at least create a vast production run for EELV components that would benefit the space flight community.

so lets compromise!, you get a SRB/ET shuttle stack as cargo vehicle.
preserve the work force.
carrier shares what ever upper stages are in use by the DOD community.
build your flexible path/lunar architecture around this upper stage, meaning any deep space beyond LEO mission must be able to use the side mount or EELV as a fall back.
this fullback would be a EELV heavy or the side mount but this is accomplished by human rating the EELV medium.

NASA’ post Apollo history of expensive failure after expensive failure, has not been a failure in the eyes of the corporations who got the contracts, only to the American people.

Exactly how do you figure this, as since the Apollo program, we have developed and used a reusable launch vehicle that has successfully flown well over 100 missions and designed and built on orbit an operational Space Station? How is that a "failure"? You could argue it's not good value for money, but it is hardly a failure in the traditional sense of the word.

'There were "adults" on both sides working behind the scenes to develop and sell this compromise, even if there are to be changes made ahead'

Whilst this is true, the adults were solving a political challenge - how to get people with fiercely competing, partially acknowledged interests to work together.

A substantial political achievement no doubt, but they were not addressing the challenge of space exploration. There was some dabbling in the great question of "Which Rocket and Where First?" but the motives for that were transparent. Anything more visionary than that was rhetorical afterthought.

I think the great debate about commercial exploitation and our permanent future in space - which Obama's plan should have started - did not gain traction.

Shrill reactions killed any chance of rational debate and had to - because the plan's opponents were so completely wrong footed.

Republicans aguing that American industry could not deliver, only government programs could succeed, but they needed more money. You could hardly make it up.

If new space ventures gain any success this whole debate will probably be superceded by events. Fingers crossed.

You could argue it's not good value for money, but it is hardly a failure in the traditional sense of the word.

It is a failure because it set out to dramatically lower launch costs and ended up costing more than expendables. And killed 14 astronauts.

So this is how an innovative space program dies–with thunderous applause.
Looks like my fears have been confirmed. The U.S. at large is interested more in protecting entitled jobs than building a real innovative space program--as evidence by the authorization itself as well as all the support for it. This "compromise" lacks what the authors and supporters blasted the Obama plan for-lack of specific missions/goals/timelines. "Start designing a big a$$ rocket RIGHT NOW and have it operational in less than six years while using all of the same tools that were used in the 5 year program we just canceled for being too far behind & over budget without doing any thorough research on whether its the best option for our BEO future" is not a plan. This authorization language not only guts technology research that remains a MUST for ANY meaningful BEO exploration (whether its funded or not) but ties NASA down to Shuttle technology for the next 30+ years.....the 'worldwide leader in space' using technology from the 1970s in the year 2040 ? Seems conflicting......this does nothing more than set NASA up for failure AGAIN in trying to do great things on a pauper's budget---unrealistic deadlines combined with funding profiles that are half of what they should be---aka Constellation repackaged....and what remains of techonlogy and commercial budgets will be devoured by this Space Launch System boondogle in the process of that failure.

The Obama plan, while not perfect, addressed the major flaw of NASA's previous plans: if Congress is not willing to spend a realistic amount of money, NASA cannot do the great things it is constantly told to go do. Congress always wants to buy a Cadillac from NASA and always comes to the table with a Kia's worth of payment expectations to get it. Recognizing this inherit flaw year after year, the prez put together a list of realistic things a budget of that size can buy--and while very unspectacular (as is the size of the NASA budget) was, unlike this plan, do-able.

Good point. Maybe our standards are low. Wouldn't Shuttle and NASA be a failure to anyone in the 1960s? Maybe decades have made expectations dull.

First:
Nothing happens in a vacuum. Democrats in the Senate and House have been complaining that they have been carrying a lot of water for the Prez on Health care and such and taking a lot of heat. On Wednesday key members of the House and Senate met with the President to voice their concerns. The NASA authorization was probably seen as a place to bend on a policy that was not really important to the WH. You'll notice that the acceptance of the compromise came right after the meeting.

Second:
I think the Senate Appropriates will put it through with little changes or amendments as will the House knowing it's most likely the best they'll get.

Third:
In my opinion the SLS and MCTV a.k.a. Orion look a lot like the Boeing proposal from May. NASA should partner with Boeing and Lockheed-Martin to build these components then emphasize that partnership as a way to overcome fears of this becoming another over budget, behind schedule boondoggle that will never be built.

Okay, a compromise. Now lets get back to work exploring space and the universe to gain knowledge that makes mankind a healthier, safer and more productive and responsible species.

> Thoughts?

My thought is trading liberty for security is stupid. That includes trading away the free market for government subsidized job security.

Posters, also consider one possible benefit if this 3-yr authorization should actually pass and get signed into law: It could possibly exempt NASA from the 5 percent discretionary spending cuts mandated by OMB, making the case that the Congress saw fit to pass such a busget absent such cuts to NASA. Might actually fly...

"It is a failure because it set out to dramatically lower launch costs and ended up costing more than expendables. And killed 14 astronauts."

That sure is a very narrow definition of success or failure. So are all aircraft that have killed anyone a failure?

While the shuttle failed to deliver on lower launch costs, it did provide large crew tended up and down mass, the ability to conduct repair missions, the ability to reuse large complex spacecraft, plus much more.

The shuttle in most eyes was definitely not a failure.

Dr. Spudis,

Thank you for your work in opening the luner frontier
to the human economy and I am sure that regardless of
which vision of space development prevails, that much
of your vision will come to pass. The only question is
how and when.

That said, the Shuttle was and remains a dangerous
and expensive compromise. It killed 14 people (so far)
and costs $2 billion/year exclusive of any mission costs. Moreover, how safe it is in direct relation to it's flight rate. The proposal to fly it now and then with a skeleton staff is a recipe for tragedy. It was a compromise from it's inception. It's current design was set at the demand of DOD who thought they would need it for very large reconnaissance satellites. By the time DOD decided they wouldn't need it for that purpose, it was to late to go back to a Dinosaur on steroids that NASA would have built for it's own needs.

The ISS was what we built after the failure of a
similar national program. Your right, it was a waist
of money for the facility it'self. The space hab
approach was and remains a superior way of doing space
station. I have no doubt that Mr. Bigelow will do very
well with the idea. That said, I am ultimately glad that
ISS was built and used. Primarily because it has given
us some hands on experience with working transnationaly
to run a complex space effort. To go to Mars or develop
the Moon will take a lot of working with others. We
have had a chance to do that early and often thanks to
the ISS.

As for the rest of NASA' post Apollo efforts? Pick a
number, put an "X" in front of it and that is about all that we have left of it, other than the debt.

I am looking forward to the day when a SEP powered
VASMIR engine tug takes a fully reusable Altair like lander out to looner orbit where it will be met by a SEP powered VASMIR engined hab module (seems to grand to call it a space ship). They will then land and do all the things you wanted to do with Cx, but they will do it again and again because they can afford to. You will be an older man then and I will be dead, but it will happen and you will have the honor of having done much of the ground work.

The sooner we turn our backs on the past the sooner we
can embrace the future. Good luck, but not to much.

That sure is a very narrow definition of success or failure. So are all aircraft that have killed anyone a failure?

Certainly not, but fortunately most successful aircraft kill their passengers at a lower rate. Of course, it is a spaceplane and we must accept spacflight is more dangerous than ordinary atmospheric flight. Still, NASA wanted to improve safety by an order of magnitude with Ares and commercial entities are aiming for the same goal.

While it is certainly true the Shuttle did achieve some goals, they were goals that made no sense without the main goal of reducing launch costs by an order of magnitude. Manned servicing and returning payloads is not cost effective at Shuttle prices.

It is a political compromise. What it is is a short-sighted jobs-saving measure. What it is not is a plan for where we are going and why.

It is unfortunate the compromise came so late, since a similar plan six months or a year ago could have stretched Shuttle out in such a way that it would have given continued access at a more reasonable cost while at the same time enabling development of the heavy lift using personnel and expertise that would have still been in place.

It is unfortunate that the compromise really does not establish a plan for what we are doing and why. NASA has not laid out a plan for what we are doing and why.

The original Vision was quite clear in tone - "human beings are headed into the cosmos"; O'Keefe said
"each of the individual milestones and objectives is to be priced out. ...the objective is to try to find the means to make any of those debates possible." Beyond these big words and big ideas, there is not a definitive plan for how we are going to get there.

More definition of the new heavy lift launch vehicle is needed before we understand what it will be capable of, More definition of its role and uses is required before we know which vehicle we should be developing.

Continuation of the Orion capsule saves some immediate jobs; that is the one point in its favor. But the outcome, I am afraid, will be a vehicle that will not be substantially different in capability from the Apollo command and service module of 40 years ago. The decision was made to terminate continued construction of that vehicle because of its limitations and costs. But 40 years later, we are now willing to pay those costs for a mission not yet defined and that likely this capsule will not be able to carry out.

What is needed is some dynamic leadership who can spell out the plan and requirements and sadly no one in NASA today possesses that ability.

As far as communicating to the young people of the country why space is important to them and how they can or should get involved in science, engineering or other technical subjects, it is difficult to explain it to them if we do not know why we are doing it ourselves.

We need a clear plan; we need clear goals. We need leadership.

This compromise gives us none of the above.

"I am looking forward to the day when a SEP powered VASMIR engine tug takes a fully reusable Altair like lander out to looner orbit where it will be met by a SEP powered VASMIR engined hab module (seems to grand to call it a space ship). They will then land and do all the things you wanted to do with Cx, but they will do it again and again because they can afford to."

I'm not sure I understand you completely but I wonder if you're aware that for the VASIMR engine to be developed to the point that it can be used for interplanetary travel it needs to be tested and the only practical place to test it is the Moon. The VASIMR is a vacuum only engine and only limited tests can be conducted on the ground (vacuum chamber) or in orbit (ISS inertia is too low!) That is is one big reason for us to return to the Moon first. All paths in space go through the Moon...

My thought is that if this committee leaves a glimmer of hope in the compromise for one more shuttle flight and a potential moonshot, they will not lose their jobs no matter how the Administration reacts, good or bad. They did their job, which is performing for the audience, i.e., the paying customers. Inevitably, lighting is going to strike and many people are going to lose their jobs since you can't teach an old dog new tricks, meaning its going to be out with the old an in with the new.

Infocat13…

Don’t know what the White House will try to bargain in or out of the budget. I can only know what I think makes since.

One of the most revolutionary things that could happen to NASA would be to completely segregate It’s space efforts from that of DOD. The history of DOD/NASA relationship is not a good one. The single Instance I can think of where it worked out well for NASA is after the Apollo 201 fire, when the Air force Came in and helped reorient NASA’s Apollo effort. Other than that, NASA’ budget has been a place to hide DOD spending, note that one of the main reasons given for NASA’s continued use of Solids it that it supports the industrial base that DOD depends on, and to stop using solids would increase the cost to DOD. This is nonsense reasoning spouted to keep ATK’ profit margin up. It begs the question of whether (If that is true) DOD should be using solids either. If it is the case, then shouldn’t DOD pay that cost out of their budget? Maybe DOD should consider how it most effectively spends it’s own money and stop budgeting NASA’ budget.

Beyond that, clearly commercial crew needs to be accelerated with commitment in the 2011 budget (even if monetarily small in 2011). Do people really think Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Orbital, and Space X, can’t get the job done? The only think that continuing the Orion does is give Lockheed an unfair advantage (since the only EELV capable of launching an all up LEO Orion is the Atlas V). It otherwise discourages the other competitors by bringing into question their profitability (but of course that is precisely why it is in the Senate budget). The White House should cut out the Orion even for life boat and contract out the life boat (which is an American responsibility in the ISS agreement).

Moreover, every dollar cut out of the space science budget is a day we are not going beyond LEO safely. What you think the Orion quick dash to the lunar orbit or L1 will continue to have Apollo’ good LUCK and avoid a humongous solar flare? Oh and by the way is 1/6th. G enough to keep people healthy and if your answer is yes, how do you know that. Show me the data. Is a space hab inflated with polyethylene really enough radiation protection for deep space? What are the handling problems involved with inflating a space hab with polyethylene? And a thousand other things. Every dollar
denied is a day we aren’t going anywhere.

The main thing that the White House needs to do though is to end the Apollo mentality, so that the space program can meet the real needs of the country. One incremental step at a time we can go anywhere and do anything without the ups and downs of each administration stopping and starting one ill advised grand program after another.

EarthShine,

The Saturn family of rockets was started in 1960 while work on the F-1 engines to power it dates to 1955. Neither program had a "destination" to go to when they were started, but both provided the critical foundation to take America to the Moon when President Kennedy decided to do so. Without this head start its difficult to imagine Apollo making it to the Moon in 8 years. And the lack of similar existing systems has been the basic cause of previous space destination goals failing.

The new SLS, like the Saturn family, will provide future presidents with the option of selecting destinations to go to if they so desire. This is the difference between the Compromise and President Obama's original space policy. His original space policy left few options for future administrations in space beyond commercial to ISS and endless studies of technology and HLV options. More importantly there would have been only a limited aerospace workforce to use to rebuild any new programs on.

By contrast the Compromise provides the tools and infrastructure (Orion, SLS) to pursue destinations in space if they choose to do so. And the core of a quality aerospace workforce. In short it leaves future administrations in a much better position to pursue bold space goals instead of constraining them by requiring them to start from scratch to achieve those goals.

GREverett

With all due respects I think the White House is basically done with space at least in terms of this authorization bill. The only real barrier I see left to this is the House where the hard core opponents of HLV/Orion will likely make a last ditch stand.

If the space advocates are successful in getting the House Committee to agree to a similar bill and both are reconciled and passed by Congress, the President will simply sign it and move on. The Administration simply has too much on their plate to get into any big back and forth on a minor issue like space policy. Plus giving members of the Senate/House victories in this area may bring them on board more important legislation in the future.

So the focus now needs to be on the House to accept the compromise and then getting both bills passed by Congress. Hopefully a strong united push by space advocates who are ready to end the "civil war" and move on will accomplish this quickly and NASA won't be marking time for the next year on a CR. I hope groups like the NSS and Planetary Society will quickly endorse this compromise. It would also be nice to see a majority of the former NASA astronauts come together in support of it.

"I am looking forward to the day when a SEP powered VASMIR engine tug"

"for the VASIMR engine to be developed for interplanetary travel it needs to be tested and the only place to test it is the Moon."

Those are going to be awfully big solar arrays if you are using solar electric to feed the VASIMR engines.

VASIMR is planned for testing on ISS and if succesful then will be able to maintain the ISS orbit without fuel ferrying from Progress. There is even potential to change the ISS' orbital inclination.

While you could certainly do some testing on the moon I am not sure why you would need to or want to. Seems like a big waste of capacity to land everything you would need there when you have a perfectly adequate vacuum 100 miles up.

As an exhibit of classic democratic politics, praise is perhaps merited,
as a hinge in the history of NASA, this Senate proposal does not.

Technology investment is slashed from a highly progressive and promising proposal.
Small Corporate Developers are starved out of competition versus the Mega-Corps
Human space flight capability is not speedily addressed.
Heavy Lift proposed encumbered with mandated rather than best technologies – SRBs

This proposal takes us too far from Obama’s progressive well-considered NASA goals.

Hopefully, corrections will come before it’s signed into law.

His original space policy left few options for future administrations in space beyond commercial to ISS and endless studies of technology and HLV options.

Nonsense. A commercial capsule could easily be the basis of a beyond LEO capsule, just as the Block 1 Orion would have been. And neither new technology nor HLV is needed for exploration. That's not to say new technology couldn't be useful, but it is not required.

Whatever power you can generate on the ISS, you can generate that and more on the Moon potentially - besides you have other options on the moon like nuclear power - probably a necessicity if we have a reasonable size base on the Moon.

The VASIMR engine destined for the ISS is meant only for orbit maintenence - it's not big enough to take us anywhere else though it's been proposed for Moon tugs taking something like 6 mos.

If you want to test a Mars sized engine you'll need the power source, the vacuum and sufficient inertia - the ISS can supply only one out of three.

I personally doubt that we can travel to Mars until we're able to move beyond hydrocarbon engines.

Just for the record, the first statement you quoted isn't mine - I quoted that in my previous comment.

Martijn.meijering,

Yes, "in theory" when you are starting from scratch you may do anything with enough time and money. But in practice it so much easier if you already have a BEO capable Orion and a HLV to start with. The key problem with the various space exploration initiatives over the last two decades was the need to start from scratch since NASA didn't have a HLV and BEO capsule.

Under President Obama's policy we may have been able to reach a NEO in 15 years. Under the Compromise we may do so before this decade is out, with missions to the Moon as well, if the Next administration so chooses. And that is the key, the Compromise opens up a Solar System of possibilities for the next administration in space.

And don't just think of the SLS in terms of human spaceflight. Think about the robotic missions you could do with the capability of launching 150 MT to LEO...

Yes, "in theory" when you are starting from scratch you may do anything with enough time and money. But in practice it so much easier if you already have a BEO capable Orion and a HLV to start with.

It's actually cheaper and faster without the HLV. An uprated commercial crew capsule, an EELV upper stage with an EDS kit and a mission module with its own propulsion (scaled up SM) and you're good to go. You could do exploration and provide an initial market for RLVs at the same time.

VASIMR is not going to get us to Mars or beyond without using high power density nuclear reactors. And as far as I can tell, there is little to no research going into they type of space-based nuclear power generation that would be light enough, and powerful enough to be of use for a manned VASMIR mission to Mars/Phobos and beyond.

And as a side not, I never quite understood the argument to attempt landing on Phobos first, before Mars. If were are going to expend the resources and send a crew all the way out there, might as well go for the Full Monty and make a Mars landing. Yes, the gravitational well of Mars makes a manned, powered landing a much more complicated endeavor (as compared to Phobos), but nevertheless, Phobos is not much more then a glorified Asteroid. The real science and potential for a sustained presence rests with Mars.

What on Earth would make you think the White House is
done with space because they have a lot on there plates.
They had a lot on there plates before they started there space revolution.

Accepting a CR for the White House has some appeal. First it lets the shuttle die completely. NASA gets to part out the shuttle and send the hulls to various
Museums while destroying all tools and tanks etc. It
also allows them to limit those Cx activities to those
that are specificly mandated or fit their plan. By the
FY2012 budget negotiation, the White House would have
the recomendation of the National Commission for Fiscal
responsibility to weild over Congress, and the new
congress would be in place.

At the end of the day, the operative term is:

Show me the money.

Does congress have the will to provide the money that this bill requires, especially after the hundreds of billions we have wasted on other things, or is this just for show to buy a few votes for a looming election and then tossed aside like an old rag.

The VASMIR is of course going to be used as a tug and
ISS reboost engine before it is used for deep space
missions. Moreover, plans are for it to be used for
deep space satellite launch. The VASMIR will be well
tested before it is used for manned deep space missions.
It is two decades away from any such use at best.
There are many good reasons for robotic and human
return to the moon. Testing VASMIR isn’t one of them.

Question posters: Does the "Multipurpose Crew Transportation Vehicle" have to be a capsule?

Question posters: Does the "Multipurpose Crew Transportation Vehicle" have to be a capsule?

I'd strongly prefer a refuelable and reusable orbital lander precursor / Buzz Aldrin XM / Huntress Deep Space Shuttle instead. A beyond LEO capsule can always be based on a commercial crew taxi.

GREverett,

President Obama needs to end this as soon as possible if he hopes to have any chance in Florida in 2012. Without Florida there is little hope he will be re-elected. So really President Obama has more motive to buy into the Compromise then Congress does. The Senators could build in provisions to protect Ares I and Shuttle in any CR, since it would keep them as the program of record, and they would if the WH blocks this.

martijn.meijering,

[[[It's actually cheaper and faster without the HLV. An uprated commercial crew capsule, an EELV upper stage with an EDS kit and a mission module with its own propulsion (scaled up SM) and you're good to go. You could do exploration and provide an initial market for RLVs at the same time.]]]

Only there are no RLVs and they would take longer, and probably cost more, then the HLV.

Frank,

A small 6-8 person lifting body like Buzz Aldrin proposed for StarBooster (called Altair...)would be nice, but the sense of the bill seems to be to use Constellation elements as much as possible which means Orion.

However it is possible something like a lifting body could be used for commercial crew since the Compromise assigns the function of Crew Rescue now to commercial crew and I seem to recall somewhere it requires being able to return to land, not a ocean recovery. I expect that will be something that NASA might consider while it does the studies to prepare the Commercial Crew RFP.


The Senate legislation specifies Orion capsule. To me the way you do MCTV is a nice comfortable self propelled space hab with a VASMIR engine that takes a couple of weeks to spiral out to the Moon or Lagrange points, has plenty of loiter time to fix that buggy space telescope or whatever, and then returns to Earth orbit to be resupplied and do it all over again. Unfortunately this is not Senator Nelsons idea of a MCTV.

Question posters: Does the "Multipurpose Crew Transportation Vehicle" have to be a capsule?
No. But what it does have to be is a vehicle (or vehicles?) which fits the technical (mission specific), budget, and schedule requirements that are laid out for it. Simple really.

Wings look cool but, at the end of the day, they more than double the launch mass compared to a capsule.

If this is about commercial LEO access we need cheap realiable technology instead fancy Buck Rogers type spacecraft. Been there, done that (with the Shuttle) ... and it wasn't anywhere near cost-effective.

No, absolutely no reason why it needs to be a capsule and every reason to not make it a capsule.

- it immediately and unnecessarily sets up competition for commercial
- assuming you are planning to land in the ocean little of it is reusable
- landing in the ocean is more expensive and more dangerous
- you really do not want your lond duration astronauts coming down in a capsule if you can help it (as opposed to a glider/airplane) and you certainly do not want them coming down in the ocean
- you lose the expertise of 50 years worth of evolving space planes (or lifting bodies) and hypersonic entry vehicles
- you buy into the Apollo concept of throwaway space ships for every mission-you'd much rather have a long duration sortie raft that can be refurbished and refueled at a space station, head of to the moon or elsewhere, and come back to the space station without wasting itself or any pieces of it
- as far as the idea that you have to have capsules to return from the moon or planets-we have now used aerobraking on a variety of shapes, and if we are going with advanced propulsion systems, then there is no reason to be coming directly back to earth's atmosphere.

Basically the capsule concept was a bad one for Constellation and given that commercial now is five years closer to fruition, its a worse idea now.

Also, Orion itself is not nearly as safe as it could be given a crew of up to 6 people. A 6 person crew could be accommodated in an Apollo Command Module sized vehicle (12.5 ft dia instead of 16.5 ft.) The larger, heavier capsule size makes it less safe for off the pad or off the launcher aborts. It also makes the entire system that much less efficient. You need a larger booster, a larger abort rocket motor, larger and more massive support systems.

And the capsule on its own is not large enough to support anything more than a brief mission. If you are going off for multiple weeks or months to asteroids or planets, you are going to have to have additional volume for long duration stowage outside of the capsule and for a safe haven (in fact likely too safe havens other than the capsule for mission durations sufficiently long), and probably these other volumes would be optimized for zero-G or partial-G use and not for launch and entry.

Even Soyuz is a good model of a volume rarely used in orbit and optimized for launch and entry (small inside and out). Orion was a poorly thought out concept from the start for anything other than an Apollo type of mission.

Space Florida has serious misgivings about the Nelson "compromise" Florida does well under the White House plan. To the extent the President does well or not in Florida has a lot more to do with the economy than the space program. Florida currently has the 5th. highest unemployment rate in the nation. There is far to much history to take place between now and election day 2012 for you or anyone else to be able to predict the outcome. Senator Reed will not allow an amendment onto the floor that the White House dosn't sign off on. Any vote on a CR would require an amendment to add anything to the 2010 budget. You have your facts partially wrong. Cx would remain the program of record. Shuttle would end as the Bush administration planned.

Question posters: Does the "Multipurpose Crew Transportation Vehicle" have to be a capsule?

I think this is a very important question Frank, but I also think that you can't ask the question independently of 1) recurring operating costs, 2) proposed mission types, and 3) expected life of the vehicle.

Unfortunately, despite all of the bipartisan back-patting this week, none of these issues has been intelligently decided yet.

Steve

Remember, Orion was selected because by using the Apollo shape it was simpler to design and could be readied in time to avoid a gap.

Remember also that the current 16.5 ft dia Orion is smaller than what we started with. We already downsized the diameter and then we had to super-downsize the service module because the entire assembly was too massive to reach orbit on the Ares 1. Originally Orion was supposed to use a new light weight thermal protection system that was going to withstand the lunar return but be 1/3 the massive. Then they decided to go with the same configuration and material as Apollo.

The constant major changes just point out how little up front work was done to determine requirements.

GREverett,

Shuttle has already been pushed into FY2011 by NASA, so it would be funded by the CR. But again, President Obama appears to have no interest in extending this. Its not one of his core issues.

Clearly this "compromise" came about because it is politically expedient, but it will hurt the agency in the long run. First of all an HLV by 2016 is completely unrealistic, the same sort of unrealism that doomed Constellation. Such a schedule pretty much dictates what contractor hardware NASA must use if it has any chance to make the schedule. From day one Constellation had unrealistic schedules and the funding was simply not there to accomplish what needed to be done. I see the same mistakes being repeated if this compromise passes. The Ares I was supposed to be the "easier" vehicle, but look at the challenges it faced. Everyone wants to fly something NOW because of the gap but the reality is the gap is here to stay due to a decision made over 5 years ago and we can make the best out of a bad situation by making the smart investment in R&D now so that we have vehicles & technologies that adequately meet the challenges of the future. The WH plan is beneficial to NASA institutionally because the R&D focus would help purge the ranks of excessive managers and bureaucrats and bring the agency back to its core activities of engineering R&D, science and exploration. The WH plan would also encourage newer, leaner competitors of the likes of SpaceX and others, a critical need if we have any hope of lowering the cost of access to space. I don't get that the politicians who are all for "less government" are opposed to commercial taking a bigger role in our space program with some of their skin in the game (investment) instead of the corporate welfare of NASA doling out cost-plus contracts to the big corps like ATK, LM, etc.
If Congress wants to turn NASA into a jobs program, then the compromise is the way to go. But if Congress wants NASA to remain a leader in aeronautics and space exploration, the WH plan is the better way to go. We just spent billions bailing out our auto industry, an industry that years ago decided not to spend the money on updating their offerings to be more fuel efficient, etc., and instead stuck with outdated designs, sold "profitable" SUVs. Guess where they found themselves when gas prices went up. NASA needs to do R&D to build better vehicles, engines & robotics for exploration. It is in working in new technology areas that NASA provides the most benefits to our nation. You create MORE jobs this way if jobs are the ultimate goal. If our nation is to have any hope of getting out of this economic depression, it needs to invest heavily in R&D. China, India and others are doing this, producing more engineers & scientist than ever. Spending millions for an additional shuttle flight is just a huge waste of money at this point - it's too late and only temporarily helps the job picture for the benefit of politicians and their re-election in the 2010 cycle.

Only there are no RLVs and they would take longer, and probably cost more, then the HLV.

Irrelevant as the RLVs would depend on a market, but the market (and exploration) would not depend on RLVs. The propellant would initially be launched on existing and soon to be existing expendable launch vehicles. The fact that RLVs will take a long time is why we should start as soon as possible.

Accepting a CR for the White House has some appeal.

That was what I thought before last Thursday. I never understood why Obama was pursuing such a radical policy to begin with, but his position seemed strong and was getting stronger by the day. I don't understand why he chose to do a deal now. They must have struck some secret deal on an unrelated subject to make this happen.

I suspect Garver was the one pushing for the new policy and Obama was willing to go along with it to a degree, but now the political calculations that do matter to Obama seem to have changed, even if we don't know what they are. I don't think Garver will be given much room to promote commercial space anymore. Obama still has plenty of opportunities to change his mind, but I don't think he will. Then again, I've been surprised by him twice, who is to say there won't be a third time. If an authorisation bill is agreed between the House and Senate I would expect him to sign it. If the new Congress after the elections has a totally different makeup I can see the deal coming apart again, but prospects aren't good.

Yes. Under the CR only current plan for the shuttle would be fulfilled. The shuttle would not have the backup shuttle launch or the ET94 refurb. It would end with these last two missions in 2011. The parting out and distribution of the hulls and dispersal of the shuttle support teams would be in 2011 as planned.

I don't know where you get this vast scenario from, given that you probably have no more hard information than anyone else. Speculation is useful only to a point. It is generally well to look at process first and then only briefly at personalities and circumstances. In politics process rules.

The House budget is very encouraging. I can see a way
forward from it to a grand compromise if there is enough
give on everyone’ part. The prospects of a clean CR are
down to around 50% now. There just isn’t a lot of time
to get the deal done. If we don’t have an agreement in
the next 3 weeks, they just waited to long, the budget
process rules.

As I said, I would have agreed the CR option would be attractive to Obama, but then how do you explain Obama struck a deal? As far as I can tell the deal would be worse for Obama than a CR. And I don't understand what good you see in the House bill, other than perhaps protracted deadlock and a CR.

Depends on what the House/Senate conferees come up with
as to whether a CR is preferable. Obama hasn’t agreed to
anything. Lori Garver (a lowly NASA associate administrator
as far as her title goes). Said the Senate Bill was “a good
place to start" when asked by the Houston Chronicle. So
was Concord Bridge. The question isn't starting the
question is ending. The House bill and certain elements of
the Senate bill together make for an acceptable place for
NASA to work from. But there is a lot of stuff to go
through. First the House appropriators have to do there
mark on what the science committee has done. Then the
result has to go to conference where the Senate & WH will
have their say. The result will then either be acceptable to all parties or not. Either the House, or the Senate, or the WH, have effective ways of stopping any bill from being included in a CR. This really does need to be an acceptable compromise for all and it needs to be done quickly.

This really does need to be an acceptable compromise for all and it needs to be done quickly.

Or else we get a vanilla CR by default you mean?

Yup. Not the end of the fight. Just pushes the fight into
next years budget with the WH in marginally stronger position. Shuttle gone and Cx so crippled it can't be reserected. Nothing much left to defend and corporate
interests anxious to get some new contracts.

"That said, the Shuttle was and remains a dangerous
and expensive compromise. It killed 14 people (so far) and costs $2 billion/year exclusive of any mission costs."

This is simply inaccurate. The reliability of launch vehicles is dependent primarily on how many missions they have flown, and today we have far more experience with Shuttle than any other operational vehicle. Obviously if it was unsafe we could not fly the final two missions.

The Shuttle was our first attempt at an RLV. It was designed without prototypes to provide flight experience with the new technologies, which was an error. But after a long and difficult design evolution, for the past five years it has been running like it's on rails. The overhead is due in large part to the massive facilities, and would be just as high with Ares or any vehicle using SRBs.

Abandoning it now, when it's finally working superbly and we have nothing to replace it, is simply absurd. It should be taken out of service when a more capable system is operational and not before that.

Nothing much left to defend and corporate
interests anxious to get some new contracts.

That is what I was hoping for last week and what I presumed Obama was hoping for too. Last week's events suggest otherwise, unless you are correct that the WH is not in fact on board with this. Time will tell.

It should be taken out of service when a more capable system is operational and not before that.

In a rational world you would be right. But Shuttle extension would lead to SDLV. The Shuttle industrial complex made sure a rival replacement wasn't ready on time and should not be rewarded with its own replacement vehicle.

Unfortunately, what's right doesn't matter and even though it's wrong there may well be a short extension even in the crazy world we live in.

I would ask you to consider that your view and my view are not mutually exclusive.

Absolutely given the technology of the time and given the constraints needlessly imposed by fickle DOD requirements, the Shuttle was a technical miracle. And inherently dangerous because of the design requirement for mixing SRB's and Lox/Hydrogen, and the fact that there was no crew escape system. Had nothing to do with the brilliance and dedication of the people who made it work. If you had to design a shuttle today wouldn’t you use a big hydrocarbon engine cluster with no SRB’s in an inline configuration and a pusher escape system?

Absolutely given what it is, the current functionality of the shuttle is as good as it can get, and it is still dangerous for the same design limitations plus a decreasing flight rate. I think you might agree that flight rate with a machine like the shuttle is important to safety.

Now. Given that you are down to three usable shuttle tanks and two more that might be buildable with enough restart
money for parts that are not being made now, and given
that every time a shuttle lands it needs to be stripped of
parts to use on the next flight (again because some things
just aren’t' made any more#. Given all that, what kind of
flight rate might you get out of a shuttle extension? With
what staff?

Yes the cost is in no small part do to the need for those
SRB's. And they are part of the shuttle. You can't wish
them away by saying the rest of the system is cheaper
without them. And yes. Ares will be expensive in part
because of the SRB's. Why do you thing the administrations
budget wanted no SRB's? Rather a million pound class hydro
carbon engine #Hydrogen is also a major safety and cost
inhibitor#. You can throw a lot of stuff into space with
a cluster of million lb. engines, relatively cheaply and
reliably. You could do worse than take that one flight
rated F1 they still have and disassemble it and scan it
piece by piece into a cad program, and start there.

The sad fact is we can't afford the shuttle and also do
a new heavy lifter of any kind and keep the space station
up till 2020 and do an Orion and do aeronautics and do
science and do space technology and do all the other things
on $19B a year. Just can't make it work. Study after study
has shown this. Augustine was just the last one.

Wish I had a nickel for all the folks who wish they had
what they used to have. Who wish they didn't have to start
over again and walk away from what could have been. Still
we space cadets are lucky in one way. We have something
to walk toward. Even if we were down to cooking up a solid
rocket motor using sugar to launch a micro sat. we would
still have something. We have a great deal more than that.

I hope my fellow polls get a clue and we can have more in
the way of commercial space and space technology investment
and NASA gets wide latitude in designing a new HLV. But if
we don't we will take what we get and be glad for it and
build with it. Because in the end like the brave people who climb into those magnificent dangerous shuttles. We takes our money and we takes our chances.

Lets light this candle.


150% correct.

The accidents were not specifically the result of vehicle design errors. They were the result of management errors.

In the case of Challenger, the launch was flown outside of the certification envelope and after the o-ring problems had been fully briefed to the proper NASA managers.

In the case of Columbia, this was a mission flown after materials changes had changed the characteristics of the ET foam, after management had been briefed on the problems that had been experienced on earlier missions and the potential for further problems, and after the foam strike had occurred, the failure of management to follow up in any fashion on the potential for catastrophic failure even after the management had been briefed on the potential for such catastrophic failure. The lower level managers failed to ake any action and the highest level manager shrugged her shoulders and said 'not much we could/would do about it anyway'.

Extending the Shuttle at this late date helps the workers who might be able to hang on for another 9 months or a year.

Your statement that "Abandoning it now, when it's finally working superbly and we have nothing to replace it, is simply absurd. It should be taken out of service when a more capable system is operational and not before that." is absolutely correct. But its now too late to try and re-start the supply lines. This was the result of management failures over the last 2 years who failed to take action when they saw what was coming. The problems with Constellation were very apparent to anyone paying attention two years ago.

Also, what we should have been doing was learning from the problems of Shuttle to come up with a new and better replacement.

Orion is NOT a new and better replacement based on the lessons of Shuttle. It is a throwback to an earlier era.

We are throwing away much of what the US taxpayer gained at considerable expenditure over the last 35 years.


Your facts are not facts. Both accidents were directly
do to the design of the shuttle. You could not have had
a burn through of an SRB if there were no SRB. You could
not have had foam breaking off an external tank and
hitting the orbiter' wing if there were no Orbiter
strapped to the side of the tank. Both those design
features cost lives. Was the managment lax? Yes. Would
both of those accidents have happened with better
management? Probably one or both.

"There are many good reasons for robotic and human return to the moon. Testing VASMIR isn’t one of them."

Well, that is what I heard from Franklin Chang-Diaz himself and he was quite persuasive in his arguments as to why we need to go to the Moon to test the VASIMR.

That's interesting. There is nothing on the Ad Astra
web site or any of his public comments to that effect.
Please elaborate.

This was at a talk at the Univ of Houston, Clear Lake last year. There could be a video of it on the internet. If I find it I shall post it.

Please do. It is not on the face of it all that reasonable to go to the expense and difficulty of dropping a VASMIR engine and fuel into another gravity well to test it. Free space would do and incremental development of the engine over a couple of decades is what is really needed to gain the confidence needed to trust a human crew to any device.

If you have his email address perhaps you could ask him for a clarification of his position on the matter.

Please elaborate. How would you power and run a full duration test (for the duration of a Mars mission) of a 200 Mw (that's about the size I seen mentioned) VASIMR engine in free space? And why would that be better than using the Moon?


Glad to elaborate. The optimal Mars VASMIR would be 20mw
electric. Would either be powered by a Fission or Fusion
reactor or a SEP/Fission hybrid. The more likely design
would be a 12mw electric (the 200mw you often see mentioned
refers to the thermal power of a Fission reactor and don't
apply to SEP or SEP hybrid designs). The first space rated
VASMIR would be the 200kw rocket to be placed on the ISS in
2015. The next likely use is a LEO to GEO space tug & or
debris collector which would probably be a 400kw engine.
800kw or 1.2mw engine for the lunar tug. Something like
a 2mw-3mw engine for the NEO mission. Then possibly
(this hasn't been proposed). An unmanned 12mw engine
SEP for a Venus/Mercury flyby mission with a human rated
but unoccupied vessel. Then a 12mw SEP/Fission Hybrid human
crewed flight to orbit Mars space and rendezvous with Mars
moons. If your looking to validate an engine for a Mars
mission you don't need anything but a SEP pack and your
VASMIR engine tied to an navigational and communications
unit. No moon needed. People and robots will use the Moon
for things the Moon does best. The level of confidence you
would want for a long duration deep space mission has to
be gained through an incremental development program over
many years and thousands of man days of operations in
space. It isn't a big boomer chemical rocket. It wont do
to have a 5 year test program and declare yourself ready
to go. VASMIR's are space ship engines not rockets VASMIR's
go out and come back for resuply and and reuse. NX-.0001;->

During an interview I did for AIAA's magazine (I think the resulting article is on their site) I recall him saying a perfect testing ground would be cycling back and forth in cislunar space. I don't recall him saying installing an engine actually on the lunar surface, but I could be wrong. Article was in 2008 or 09.

While I agree that the major impetus of the changes are to save jobs I see no conflict with the National Space Transportation Policy. There is no current commercial capability to launch crewed vehicles on trajectories to the Moon, Mars or any where else. And if the government is the only "customer" and must define the requirements for the vehicle, how can the result be considered commercial?

That's the talk I was referring to. Thanks for the link.

@ Frank Sietzen:

He may have been referring to the lunar tug concept that's on Ad Astra's website. That would be a much smaller engine than what would be required for a Mars mission of a few months. Or perhaps an updated interview is in order?

I would be very surprised if an engine were tested without human presence in what would be likely an irrecoverable orbit (which would be the case if the whole kit and caboodle - nuclear reactor(s), engine and all - were sent to Mars for a full duration test and it failed partway) and that engine used for powering a manned Mars mission (assuming it passed the tests) What if it fails partway? As many entire missions will have to be built as tests are required! That would be ridiculously expensive and an unsellable idea.

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This page contains a single entry by Keith Cowing published on July 18, 2010 11:01 PM.

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