Recently, ANSER's Moscow Office met with Aleksandr A. Serebrov to discuss his views of the future of Russian aerospace activities and his ideas for further international cooperation in space. Mr. Serebrov, a retired Cosmonaut and veteran of 4 space missions and over a year in flight time, currently serves as Advisor on space issues to President Yeltsin's Administration, as well as President of the Russian Aerospace Society "Soyuz," which just celebrated its 10th anniversary.

During ANSER’s meeting, Mr. Serebrov offered his ideas for near-term cooperation in space. Stressing that he was speaking from a purely personal standpoint, Serebrov outlined his concept for a joint project to reap scientific benefit from the Mir Space Station by cannibalizing it prior to its deorbit, a concept which would keep Mir in orbit ideally for another two years, but which could conceivably be completed before then.

Separating himself from the political debate of keeping Mir in orbit for reasons of national pride and prestige, Mr. Serebrov focused on potential scientific benefits that could be reaped from keeping Mir in orbit. He outlined three main scientific objectives to support keeping Mir in orbit, to benefit all ISS program participants and astronauts, as well as future space stations:

• Ensuring ISS safety and reliability for future habitation. Mir was under construction for ten years. ISS will be under construction for no less time, during which time both material and equipment will be exposed to the harsh space environment that Mir has experienced. To ensure the safety and continued performance of ISS elements, it would be highly valuable to study the effect on Mir of 15 years of space exposure, which can be accomplished by cannibalizing Mir. Serebrov visualized a 15-year-old boy or girl in Moscow (or any one of the world's cities) who dreams of becoming an astronaut. In ten years he or she might be on the way to ISS. Their safety depends on the safety of ISS, and what we may learn from studying Mir.

• Preserving valuable equipment. There is a great deal of valuable and still operable equipment on Mir, designed and manufactured by scientists from around the world, much of which will be operable for many more years. In addition, an entire Mir module, Priroda (3 years old), could be preserved and incorporated into ISS.

• Continuation of space-based research. During the gap between Mir's planned deorbit and the time that the International Space Station (ISS) is ready to house experiments, the world community would be deprived of continued space-based scientific research.

Ideas such as Serebrov’s were likely the impetus for the Russian Space Agency’s request (and subsequent withdrawal in early November 1998) to change the ISS orbit, prior to the Zarya launch on 20 November 1998, to align it more closely with Mir’s.

What is required? Serebrov suggests prolonging the operation of Mir for two more years. Then, after the first two ISS elements are put into operation, the Space Shuttle can fly two missions within the existing shuttle launch schedule of missions to ISS for the following two missions. (See the table below for a combined schedule of current Mir events and Space Shuttle ISS assembly missions.) The Shuttle would be required in order to transport the large amount of samples and equipment to ISS and/or back to earth.

1. Dismantle operable scientific equipment from Mir and deliver it to ISS. An existing crew aboard Mir will have been working to disassemble and package equipment for transport. Such a scheme, Mr. Serebrov described, was used successfully for the first time when transferring equipment from the Salyut-7 to the Mir station.

2. Dismantle critical Mir elements (both interior and exterior) for further laboratory investigation on earth. To accomplish this, the crew would be evacuated, and an American astronaut and Russian cosmonaut team would dismantle critical parts, perhaps as much as two tons’ worth (based on Shuttle capacity), to include shielding elements, heat tubes, etc. After the completion of work, Mir could be given the necessary commands to begin its descent and deorbit.

Expected Costs. Currently, Mir operational costs amount to US$250 million annually which include costs related to four flights of Progress cargo vehicles (about US$35 million each), two Soyuz missions (US$40 million each) and ground support (about US$30 million). For the extended Mir program, Mr. Serebrov proposes to use three Progress cargo vehicles and two Soyuz vehicles with two crew members aboard. Thus, the operational costs associated with the program extension would be about US$215 million. Private funds and donations, he proposes, could cover half that costs. The second half could be covered by Russia, Japan, Europe, and the U.S., and all participants in the ISS program who care about the safety of their future crews.

Mr. Serebrov is of the opinion that with the existing ISS assembly sequence (see the Table below) it is possible to use two already planned STS missions to cannibalize the Mir station.

(Russian Mir missions, thru its planned June 1999 deorbit, in shaded areas). According to Serebrov’s plan, two space shuttle missions, within the existing space shuttle mission schedule, would be required to fulfill his concept.

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