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Last Update: 1 November 1999 |
Russian Space News: 1998 |
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"A high ranking official in Korolyov assured me that the reboost of the MIR-complex has nothing to do with an eventual prolongation of the exploitation after June 1999, but was executed for ballistic reasons. The rumours about plans to extend MIR's operational life are unfounded and the plan to bring MIR back in the earth's atmosphere after June 1999 is still fully in force."
Editor's note: So much for Russia's promise to the U.S. and other ISS partners to deorbit Mir in 1999. Let's see what the term "investor" actually comes to mean as details of this commercial plan dribble out.
"Russia's relations with the United States and the West may be seriously damaged by the U.S. attack on Iraq, wiping out years of progress since the end of the Cold War, top military leaders warned today."
"Koptev said Russia will raise additional funds by selling more hardware to NASA. He said he had already held preliminary talks with NASA officials on selling an escape capsule for the new station and hoped to sign the contract early next year. " Editor's note: This would apparently be what Dan Goldin was referring to in his 15 October 1998 letter to House Science Committee chair Sensenbrenner when he said: "To ensure uninterrupted continuation of ISS assembly, including certainty regarding availability of Russian Progress and Soyuz vehicles -- at the same time that development of independent U.S. capabilities is being pursued -- NASA's contingency planning envisions the possibility of further negotiation with Russian entities for purchase of appropriate goods and services over the next 3 to 4 years. "
"The State Department warned Russia on Wednesday that expanded cooperation with U.S. companies in the lucrative foreign commercial satellite field could be jeopardized unless Russian entities cease collaboration with Iran's ballistic missile program."
"Dismissing U.S. concerns, Russia's top nuclear official said Wednesday that Moscow would go ahead with a project to build a nuclear reactor in Iran, but won't hand over weapons technology."
"The Iranian Embassy and a senior Iranian scientist have denied a report that they actively recruited Russian scientists who previously worked on Russia's germ warfare program." Editor's note: Gee, I wonder what effect all of this may have on the delivery/launch of the Service Module? Could not Russia use further delays to counter U.S. threats to curb commercial satellite launches - and all of the hard currency they provide to cash-starved Russia?
"Waste-guzzling microbes could help solve one of space travel's most pressing problems: what to do with dirty underwear. Russian scientists are designing a cocktail of enzyme-producing bacteria to digest astronautıs special issue underpants - and the resulting methane gas could even be used to power spacecraft. "
" We may have some other budget to support the activities of the station," said Mikhail Sinelschikov, chief of piloted space flight for the Russian Space Agency.
Sinelschikov was reluctant to provide details during a Tuesday news conference at Kennedy Space Center in Florida. But he said an unnamed commercial company may fund Mir's operations beyond mid-1999.
"We have a document signed with a generic, let's say, company," he said through a translator. "The company is planning to start performing their activities aboard the station in the middle of next year. At this point, this relationship with this company is immature." Editor's note: Gee this sounds like the story Jim Oberg broke on ABC on 9 October 1998 ..... or are the Russians just tossing out these phrases to defer attention for a while?
"When it is time to get rid of a pair of old shoes, you never do that before you buy a new pair of shoes - especially in the wintertime,'' said Valery Ryumin, a Russian station official who flew to Mir aboard Discovery in June on what was considered to be the last shuttle visit. "So why get rid of an old space station when we don't have a new one?" Editor's note: "why get rid of an old space station when we don't have a new one?" Because, Valery, you cannot afford to make the payments for the new space station as it is. The longer you try and keep both programs afloat, the more you will fall behind - on both. The more you fall behind, the more money we will have to pump into your country to help you catch up. THAT is why you need to dump Mir, Valery.
Editor's note: have a look at the NASA PAO page describing Spektr. Reading this page you'd think this Mir module was still fully operational: "The focus of scientific study for this module is Earth observation, specifically natural resources and atmosphere. The equipment onboard is supplied by both Russia and the United States. " No mention whatsoever is made of the Progress collision or the fact that Spektr is now useless. This page was last updated on 7 August 1998 - more than a year after the collision - and well before the recent website upgrades.
Editor's Note: Does ISS need that Docking Module? Can it even be used on ISS? As for the Russian stuff we'd bring back, it will cost $500 million to go get it on one Shuttle mission and then another $500 million to launch it back to ISS on another Shuttle flight. Is this material actually worth $1 billion? If these items are really needed, wouldn't it be cheaper to make new copies and only use one Shuttle mission instead of two?
"The Russians have asked about the possibility of flying one more Shuttle mission to Mir with the objective of bringing back the docking module (you remember that DM thing we took up on STS-74 with no intention whatsoever of ever seeing it on this earth again) loaded with TBD lbs of Russians items."
"Koptev said Russia would keep searching for non-governmental funds to keep its 12-year-old Mir space station in orbit a year or two longer than the originally set
June 1999 retirement date. He declined to give details on where the money might come from.
"Mir is an independent project that has a right to live,'' he said. "I think plans will be fully set in two or three weeks.'' Editor's note: Yuri, instead of digging up money to keep half-dead Mir aloft, how about digging up the money required to meet your ISS obligations so that the U.S. doesn't have to constantly bail you out!
Editor's note: This article suffers a bit from translation - and rambles - but is still interesting.
"Recently, ANSER's Moscow Office met with Aleksandr A. Serebrov to discuss his views of the future of Russian aerospace activities and his ideas for further international cooperation in space. Mr. Serebrov, a retired Cosmonaut and veteran of 4 space missions and over a year in flight time, currently serves as Advisor on space issues to President Yeltsin's Administration ..... Stressing that he was speaking from a purely personal standpoint, Serebrov outlined his concept for a joint project to reap scientific benefit from the Mir Space Station by cannibalizing it prior to its deorbit, a concept which would keep Mir in orbit ideally for another two years, but which could conceivably be completed before then." Editor's note: It should be obvious by now that Russia plans to keep Mir in orbit for a long time - despite their public promise to deorbit it in June 1999.
"I think this is going to be a great beginning and this is going to be a great space station,'' said George Abbey, director of the Johnson Space Center, as he joined Russian space officials in planting a tree at Baikonur." Editor's Note: Yikes! George Abbey allowed himself to be quoted! This MUST be a special occasion!
"Kathryn Clark, the project's senior scientist, said all space research up to now has been "just a teaser," as if you had told researchers on the ground they could only work in their labs a couple of weeks a year and yet expected them to make valuable discoveries. With a full-time laboratory in orbit, she said, "We'll be realizing for the first time the real true potential of space for solving problems on Earth." Editor's note: These two articles take up an entire page of the Washington Post and are accompanied by a rather nice, full page collection of graphics and schematics describing ISS and its assembly.
Reader's comments:
"A Russian Space Star is Fading Away, according to the AP news report to
which you have a link on your site. Apparently, Solovyev never was such
a star anyway, because they cannot even find the right picture to go
with their story. But who cares, a cosmonaut is a cosmonaut, right?" - Netherlands
" Not only are Russian Space Stars fading away, but they apparently
have stand-ins for their pictures. The photo accompanying this article
is not Anatoly, unless he's had major plastic surgery between the time
of the "1997 file photo" and August 1998 when I met him in Las Vegas." - Canada
"In a recent video conference call with the head of the Russian Space Agency, NASA director Dan Goldin lost his temper as he pressed his counterpart in Moscow to make firm budgetary commitments for the coming year." "There have been many publications and discussions saying that we are dumping Mir in favor of the ISS. This is ridiculous. Funding, that's what matters. No agreements with the Americans or with somebody else that we have to abandon Mir have been reached." Editors' note: Wait a minute Yuri! This is NOT what you have told the U.S. government. Is this another case of bad translation, Yuri? Just who IS in charge at RSA Yuri? You? Russian nationalists? First you make a last minute request that the orbit of ISS be changed to match Mir's, and then, just as suddenly, RSA says that it has changed its mind. You tell the U.S. that Mir will come down in June 1999 one day but the next day you tell the folks at home that no such deal has been made. Why should anyone believe you at this point?
"Presidential aide Yevgeny Shaposhnikov said Mir's life expectancy depends on scheduling for the launch of a Russian service module for the International Space Station. The launch is set for next summer, and Mir would stay in orbit for a few months after that." Editor's note: So, each time Russia delays the Service Module, Mir stays aloft longer. Ergo in order to placate the nationalists and keep Mir aloft, all you have to do is delay the Service module i.e. do nothing. Sounds simple enough to me.
"The Russian Space Agency Wednesday rejected a last-minute change in the launch of the first International Space Station module next week, a Russian idea that had mystified the U.S. space agency, officials said."
"...[h]owever, the independent online publication NASA Watch quoted sources within the space agency as saying that the Endeavour launch - tentatively scheduled for Dec. 3 - might be pushed back to Dec. 17 or 18 if Zarya is put into a different orbit. NASA Watch said the reason for the delay would be to improve the shuttle's orientation in relation to the sun during the first construction mission. "
"Monday Boris Bodin, head of the Russian Space Agency's long-term planning department, acknowledged that Moscow may keep Mir flying longer than earlier
announced, until several months after the arrival of the living quarters module in July, 1999.
"There is nothing crafty in this,'' he told Reuters. "Our thinking is based on assuring the long-term presence of man in space.'" More proof (in case it was needed) that as far as space projects go, you simply cannot take the Russians at their word.
"Last week, Russian space officials broached NASA about the possibility of launching the first station component 10 hours later than planned on Nov. 20. The request, coming just 21/2 weeks before the Russian launch, took U.S. space officials by surprise."
"Once again NASA has been blindsided by its "trusted" Russian partners.
This week, Yuri Koptev made a last minute request that NASA consider shifting the FGB's launch time by 10 hours, thus changing the orbit of ISS so as to match that of Mir. As currently baselined, both station's orbits are at the same inclination, but the right ascension of their orbits is 140 degrees apart. This change would make them coplanar."
"The Russian government said on Wednesday for the first time that it will not pay its foreign debts next year, and will seek to renegotiate the loans. "
"The Russian Space Agency (RSA) is going to ask the government in December to consider the possibility of extending the operation of the Mir orbital station, which was intended to be closed in mid- 1999, Mikhail Sinelshchikov, chief of the RSA manned programmes department, told Tass on Wednesday."
"Russian Boran Orbital Space Shuttle, 1/4 size of US Shuttles! One of two of five remaining. Has space for One-man seat. Three have been scraped. One other is in Moscow Aviation collection, the other Is at Edwards Air Force Base Warehouse. Only Boran-5 and the other in Moscow made successful Orbital flights. There are only TWO LEFT in existence! Boran-5 must find a HOME, college campus or museum. Please find him a big front yard. Must sell soon! Phone questions: 818-766-6858 " Bidding starts at US$99,000.00. Needs a paint job. Update: from a NASA Watch reader: "The information of ebay about the "Boran-5" contradicts the information about the BOR-5 on Molniya's website. Molniya says: "Thus the geometrically scaled (1:8) BURAN model was manufactured. It was specified as BOR-5." They also list the dates of the suborbital flights of the five BOR-5. If someone bids the $100000 in the next 12 hours, he will be disappointed when they receives the 4.5m long shuttle, instead of the advertised 9m." Another reader notes: "This has got to be a mistake. I've worked at NASA Dryden at Edwards AFB for almost three decades and am not aware of the presence of a Buran there." Caveat emptor!
Progress M40 has docked with Mir. Recent editions: No. 443, No. 442, No. 441, No. 440
Editor's note: I understand that the "Mir replacement station" (trainer?) goes for around $3 million and a Buran Shuttle goes for $10 million. Gee, I wonder if they have any Service Modules lying around? Caveat: NASA Watch cannot vouch in any way for this company or the claims it makes.
"Rep. James Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., the chairman of the House Science Committee, sent his own letter to NASA on Oct. 9, saying he does not approve of the $60 million transfer. The letters were posted on NASA Watch, an independent Website that tracks NASA issues." "The last cargo ship scheduled to go to Mir in 1998, to take water, food and New Year's gifts to the space station's crew, was postponed today for 10 days because of a lack of funds. " "...we approve the proposal to use $60,000,000 of fiscal year 1998 funding for the purpose stated in our letter of September 29, 1998. However, none of the funds may be expended until the Congress receives a plan which eliminates United States reliance on Russia at the earliest possible date." "We can not support your efforts to spend the $60 million at this time without a comprehensive plan from NASA on how the agency intends to handle this complex situation both in the near and long-term." "Based on the information obtained to date, I cannot support this transfer to the Russian Space Agency and reject the reprogramming of NASA funds for this purpose. I believe approving such a reprogramming without significantly restructuring the relationship with our Russian partner will not achieve our mutual goal of providing the long-term stability necessary to a successful International Space Station project. I believe the arrangement with Russia as you propose will further undermine our national interest by rewarding the Russian government for failing to fulfill its obligations. "
"The film depicts a dilapidated Russian space station that blows apart because of a leaky pipe. A frenzied Russian cosmonaut wears a fur hat in space and fixes his equipment by hitting machinery with wrenches." "Russia's State Cinema Committee chief has been summoned before the Duma to explain why he allowed the distribution of the American action film Armageddon. " Editor's Note: I seem to recall making the point in my review of "Armageddon" that the only quasi-realistic depiction of anything was the way Mir was portrayed.
"In late August, Russia's Central Bank reluctantly allowed the nation's beleaguered commercial banks to draw down $560 million worth of their ruble reserves. The banks had promised to use the money to pay creditors and depositors, who were lined up outside their doors." Editor's note: I would assume that the $60 million that Yuri Koptev so desperately needs will be deposited into one of these Russian banks at some point.
"The speech by Valeriy Ryumin, deputy general designer and leader of the Russian section of the Mir-Shuttle program, on BBC Radio in mid-August epitomized the "We Will Not Allow Mir To Be Buried!" campaign. "We have a station and the Americans do not. The Americans will be the leaders on the new International Space Station and we will be just partners. The Mir station is like a thorn in the flesh to the Americans. That is why they are so keen for us to get out of there." Editor's note: Gee, we let Ryumin fly on a pointless, sentimental farewell Shuttle visit to creaky old Mir - and bend all the rules to do so (he speaks virtually no English), and he turns around and says this. I wonder if he'd have said this in public before his U.S. subsidized space junket. Meanwhile, despite all of his dumps on the U.S., I have yet to hear him say nyet to the latest American subsidy.
"Since a number of crucial Russian support flights are needed for the ISS in 1999-2000, the Russian Space Agency recently went along with NASA desires to terminate Mir. The Russians told NASA that Mir would be scrapped in June 1999 so that Russian space efforts can concentrate on fulfilling ISS commitments. But many among the Russian space industry are seeking other funding to keep Mir orbiting for at least two years, and maybe as many as five years."
"Mikhail Sinelshchikov, head of Russia's manned space program, said the [Service] module could be launched next summer, provided the government comes up with promised funds."
"Retired Kremlin advisor and part-time cosmonaut Yuri Baturin appealed Friday for a two-year extension of the international Mir space station, which is set for dismantling next June, ITAR-TASS said." ... "Baturin, a lawyer who says his one-time stint as an astronaut might be his last, said he feels the project is well capable of continuing, adding that dumping the station and its 11.5 tonnes of equipment into the ocean was "not economical."
"The Progress cargo ship is already at the Baikonur space center launch site in neighboring Kazakhstan, but the space agency has not been able to buy the Soyuz booster rocket needed to send it into orbit, Sinelshchikov told the ITAR-Tass news agency. "
"Ergei Gromov, a spokesman for Russia's Energiya rocket maker, said the Progress M-40 cargo craft would carry the unmanned Modul-M probe up to Mir this autumn for a launch towards the sun by the Mir crew early next year." Editor's Note: I just don't get it: the Russians don't have the money to pay for Soyuz rockets to resupply Mir, the flights needed to de-orbit Mir, or the finances to meet their ISS obligations and yet they're launching solar probes from Mir? Where is the money coming from? Meanwhile, the U.S. is going to send an additional 2/3rd of a billion dollars to subsidize Russian space efforts while they squander 660 pounds of valuable upmass on stunts like this?
Editor's note: Given stories like these, one has to wonder whether Russia is serious about dumping Mir. You also have to wonder whether NASA's proposal to help pay for a Service Module now will ever actually result in the delivery of two Soyuz vehicles in a few year's time or that the final price will be anything near $660 Million (or whatever the equivalent is according to the CY 2002 Vodka/Ruble/Dollar exchange rate).
"If you're going to pay bribes, you should at least make sure you're getting value for your money. That is patently not the case with the Russian space program. Congress should shut down the Clinton administration's ineffective bribe machine, without delay. "
"The Service Module had been scheduled for launch in April 1999, but all sides admit that date is now out of the question. NASAıs Baker said the launch "may be a couple of months late." However, the Itar-Tass news agency quoted Russian Space Agency chief Yuri Koptev as saying he was "completely in the dark" as to when the module would be finished. The job could take until the third quarter of 1999, Koptev was quoted as saying." "[Konstantin Lantratov, spokesman for Moscow's Khrunichev Space Centre] said that under an updated contract signed in 1993, Russia would supply seven upper stages in the next three years but India would not have the blueprint to develop the technology itself. He did not say how much the deal was worth. " Editor's note: If backward, bankrupt nations such as North Korea and Iraq can reverse engineer ancient Russian rocket designs to produce functional ballistic missiles, I am certain that India, with its impressive world-class technological workforce, can figure out how this upper stage works - and adapt it for purposes other than originally intended.
"The situation "is deteriorating," NASA told the White House in a confidential briefing in late July that was made public by NASA watch, an internet publisher.
In the briefing, NASA said the Russian Space Agency needs $340 million this year to build parts for its share of the international outpost, but so far had received only $20 million from its government. The outlook for improvement "is bleak," the assessment said. " Editor's note: The briefing mentioned in this article was a 30 July presentation made by NASA to the Vice President's office, OMB, and OSTP.
"Three months ago NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin told a congressional committee he would not ask for more money for the project, and less than eight weeks ago the House voted overwhelmingly to keep the station alive. "
"As long as the International Space Station is not in orbit, it doesnıt make sense to bring Mir down,² said Russian Space Agency spokesman Vyacheslav Mikhailichenko. ³What if the new station turns out not to work? Technology is technology after all."
"The president failed to disclose his candidate to the Duma and the chamber was due on Wednesday to consider laws on endemic corruption, space and regulation of detective agencies. But Itar-Tass news agency said the assembly was prepared to abandon its agenda if it received a name for the decisive vote."
"The documents [to be signed] may include an agreement on rescheduling Russia's $460 million debts to Kazakhstan for use of the Kazakh-based Baikonur cosmodrome, the spokesman said. "
Editor's note: Moscow signed a treaty four years ago to pay Kazakhstan $115 million per year to use Baikonur. Russia hasn't paid them anything since making that agreement. Kazakstan turns the power and water off intermittently to focus Moscow's attention on the problem. Now it seems that the Duma is shutting Yeltsin's power on and off and have gotten his attention.
Editor's note: we have received a report from a reliable source that some of the Russian Space Agency's money may well have been lost as the result of the recent collapse of some of the smaller Russian banks. Perhaps, as the U.S. ponders additional subsidies to Russia, it would be wise to park this money in a bank with stability - perhaps one outside of Russia. You might want to check Yahoo for recent stories on Russia's banking system.
Editor's note: They're going to dump Mir in the Pacific ocean in less than a year - at least that is what Russia says publicly. Why then would they want to invest time and expose the crew to risk fixing Spektr unless they had long term plans?
"Russians dismayed by current woes in their economy will have a unique chance to really get away from it all: space researchers are seeking volunteers for an eight-month isolation experiment, an official said today. "We need about 70 men and women as candidates to attend a simulation of a 'space flight' during the first selection stage," said Yevgeny Dyomin, the experiment's technical director at the Institute for Biomedical Problems. "Editor's Note: Excuse me, but I have problems accepting the litany of lame excuses the Russians give as to why they can't meet their existing ISS committments and then read about these large NEW projects they are starting up. Who is paying for this? Why, the U.S. is, of course, as we seek to find new ways to prop up their infrastructure. If we are helping to pay their bills, you'd think we'd at least have some say in the prioritization for spending these funds.
This is something we'd do well to emulate from the ever-pragmatic Russians: They use what certainly looks to be "off the shelf" (as in off the shelf at Radio Shack or KMart) ham radio hardware on Mir.
I just have learned that the MIR voice relay sites at NASA's bases in the US will remain in operation, at NASA's expense, per a decision by Frank Culbertson to demonstrate US generosity. The loss of Altair-2 means that the amount of information monitored by me will decrease. I now am depending on that what I can monitor via the VHF-channels.
"So far, Congress has consistently supported funding for the space station, which the General Accounting Office estimates could cost American taxpayers almost $100 billion over its entire life cycle. But if delays and overruns continue to mount due to Russia's problems, Sensenbrenner and Cowing both fear that support could ebb away. "This is a train wreck in slow motion," Cowing said. "People are going to start diving off the train." Editor's note: In addition to featuring a NASA Watch link to the 30 July NASA presentation to the White House, NASA Watch is listed as a featured website. Be certain to stop by and vote in an online poll which asks "What do you think should be done about the International Space Station?" Yikes! (PAO) who's this "Cowing" person they quote?
"No one believes the U.S. will simply cancel the station. Therefore, each day of inaction only makes the threat of upsetting the program more dire. Failing to face up to the station's Russia problem makes it inevitable that assembly will be disrupted. And that means cost will go up more than necessary for a program upon which much has already been squandered. "
"Chernomyrdin's return created a bizarre space time warp for the cosmonauts who left Earth 207 days ago. Both men went into orbit before Chernomyrdin left office in March and missed Kiriyenko's four-month term, only to find Chernomyrdin back at the helm on their return. "
"Russia's rouble plunged more than 40 percent against the German mark Wednesday, and the bewildered central bank declared it could no longer afford to intervene to support the battered currency. Editor's note: Somehow amidst this collapsing economy the White House expects Russia to come up with the internal resources to fully fund its contribution to the ISS program - this even though Viktor Chernomyrdin, the man making that pledge to V.P. Gore, keeps popping in and out of the political picture. Meanwhile, while everything is going to hell in a handbasket, a bureaucrat once fired by Boris Yeltsin somehow warrants a seat on a flight to Mir. At least we only fly Russian bureaucrats (Ryumin) who are still employed. Not to worry: everything is under control says the White House. Indeed, if you walk through Lafayette Park at lunch time you can almost hear the young policy wonks at OSTP and OMB whistling "Don't worry, be happy" as they quickly skim over NASA's (much needed) long term recommendations. Ah, but I guess that is where the IMF comes to the rescue. Guess which country is the largest financial backer of the IMF? Hint: the United States has 265,518 votes, 17.78 % of the total. No other country even comes close to having such influence - or such a large financial contribution i.e. voting rights are proportional to funds paid in. If the White House is willing to pour tax dollars into Russia via the IMF, apparently with the hope that it will help them get them back on their feet, then why is there so much resistance in that very same White House to the concept of giving NASA the money to get the Russians out of the the critical development path in the ISS program, again until such time as they can meet their obligations? The answer is simple folks: The White House is afraid of embarrassing Russia and the Russians are too proud (and greedy) to admit that there is a problem in the first place. This situation is going to get much worse well before it gets better.
Editor's Note: We've been hearing that a 2 month schedule slip for the Service Module is all but certain. One of the prime causes of the delay is the fact that some subcontractors are unwilling to ship hardware until they can be certain of getting paid. Meanwhile NASA and the other partner countries are sticking to the current launch schedule - in public at least.
Editor's Note:Viktor Chernomyrdin is back and Sergei Kiriyenko is out. Meanwhile the Ruble has been de-valued, and ABC News reports that Boris Yeltsin's approval rating is at 4% (I wonder what the margin of error is?). This certainly does not strike me as a time to expect stability in Russia's ability to meet its obligations. The last time Boris changed Prime Ministers, V.P. Gore had to go through a "getting to know you phase" with Kiriyenko - and ISS was on the agenda. According to OMB Director Jacob Lew in 5 August hearings, After their meeting Kiriyenko told Gore not to worry. As a result, the White House was confident that Russian assurances for financial stability were to be believed and no long term plans were needed. That was before Boris' capricious cabinet shuffle and the Russian economy's dive into the gutter. Of course, I'm sure Mr. Lew and all of the policy wonks in the White House are still as confident as ever that there is no need to make long term plans for future broken promises from Russia. In reply to Mr. Lew's "don't worry be happy" approach, I defer to a comment Rep. Rohrabacher made at the 5 August hearings: "What planet are you living on Mr. Lew?"
"There may be more delays in building the new space station. Nobody is confirming it officially, but some at NASA are concerned that problems with the lack of a budget for the Russian Space Agency could force the space station partners to delay the first pieces of station equipment until this time next year. Long-time readers of the View from Space will remember we talked about a six-month delay earlier which turned into the currently announced launch schedule." Editor's note: DUH, John. "There may be more delays"....Another Service Module slip? More Russian budget problems? Gee, what old news. What was it that Gomer Pyle used to say ? "Su-prise Su-prise Su-prise". Where have YOU been - or have your NASA PAO pals finally told you that it is "OK" to start floating an ISS schedule slip trial balloon??
Word has reached us regarding a cost exercise is currently underway at NASA. Various scenarios are being examined wherein Russia fails to provide some or all of its contributions to the ISS program. Development of an independent (U.S.) propellant delivery capability, additional shuttle flights, and manifest workarounds are being examined. We have also learned that Dan Goldin has given Boeing the go ahead to examine possible commercial solutions to Russia's prolems. As you may recall, NASA and the White House are due to testify (again) on ISS and Russian delays before the House Science Committee in September.
"For $435 you might expect more than a couple of cans of fish or meat swimming in oil, a few packs of freeze-dried ... stuff and some tiny bits of bread and chocolate. Editor's note: Does the $435 per meal price include launch costs? If not, this sure sounds like a get rich quick scheme to me.
"We can teach anyone to become a cosmonaut as long as he is not an idiot." -- Mir deputy flight director Viktor Blagov "
"Please identify any and all requirements that are not covered by any contract which can generate extra funds for the Russians. We are looking for any Russian ground operations revenue generators that we might require that were not realized at the time or were dropped for one reason or another. " Editor's note: This certainly seems like an attempt to find a way to justify some sort of additional subsidy for Russia - in a less than open manner.
"A struggling Russian space company is building a duplicate for a key component of the international space station, even though both the Russian and American governments have refused to pay for it."
Editor's note: this presentation (online exclusively at NASA Watch) was entered into the record by House Science Committee Chair James Sensenbrenner hearings held on 5 August.
"After concluding that sensitive U.S. space information was improperly disclosed to Russian and Ukrainian engineers, the State Department suspended most work last month on an innovative project in which Boeing Co. plans to launch satellites aboard rockets lifting off from an ocean-going oil rig, according to industry and government officials." Editor's note: Two thoughts. First: If I were working on interface issues between U.S. and Russian ISS hardware, I'd be rather nervous about what I share with my "partners". Second: Why is it that some U.S./Russian projects are subject to sanctions for inappropriate technology transfer while others (ISS) seem to be utterly immune? We've got to figure out how to do this folks! - we're about to embark upon a decade-long, multibillion dollar technology joint venture in space with a country we've also been hitting with technology transfer sanctions. Sounds like a dysfunctional relationship in the making to me. Some policy clarity from the White House would be nice.
Editor's note: I suppose that despite this news, White House representatives will try and convince House Science Committee members that Russia is not a fiscally-challenged deadbeat - and that Russia is actually quite capable of making a reliable financial committment to a decade long space station program.
"A partnership conceived for diplomatic--not scientific-- purposes is hindering space research while putting U.S. tax dollars into the pockets of corrupt Russians." Editor's Note: This is a must-read article. I do have to note that the rest of this magazine, online and off, seems to be rather conspiracy-minded. Indeed some of their stuff is outright wacko. That notwithstanding, Jim Oberg's article is quite lucid and well worth reading.
"President Clinton Tuesday imposed sanctions on seven Russian enterprises that Washington believes helped Iran develop its missile program, and vowed to punish other firms that spread weapons of mass destruction. ...." Editor's Note: as I mentioned below, so far, the U.S. has done nothing but support Russia's aerospace industry - this despite chronic Russian misbehavior and substandard performance. Let's see if the Clinton Administration actually means what it says regarding these new "sanctions". I understand that hearings before the House Science Committee are being planned for 5 August at which time OMB and OSTP representatives will testify about Russian participation in the ISS program. Hopefully, they will outline the plans (bailouts) we need to make in order to keep the ISS program going after the Russians have consistently under-performed. I can' think of a better forum whereby the White House can detail just what these new "sanctions" mean and whether previously sacrosanct foreign policy endeavors such as ISS are to be considered fair game as pressure is applied on Russia to stop them from selling technology to those who would do us harm. The OSTP/OMB crowd hasn't shown a collective backbone yet - nor do I expect them to suddenly grow one.
"With such a small mirror you could light two or three square kilometres of territory, even more," says Russian space expert Vladimir Semyenov.
Editor's note: Gee, send up a whole bunch of multi-million dollar satellites so you can get constant dim moonlight. What a bargain! I guess here must be a severe shortage of street lamps and headlights in Russia if this is the only way they can figure out how to get around when it is dark outside.
"Mir is Russia's space station and it is Russia's responsibility to provide for a controlled and safe deorbit," Chairman Sensenbrenner wrote to Gore, who will be traveling to Russia to meet with Prime Minister Yuri Kiriyenko this week. "Even the possibility that Russia may fail to deorbit Mir in a safe and timely manner could undermine public support for the larger International Space Station around the world."
"Service Module StatusEditor's Note: A special thanks to a loyal NASA Watch reader in Texas for helping us get this report online.
" Completion of the first stage of the space station is just around the corner. It is imperative that we continue to provide the necessary funding for the initial stages and move forward. But before we do that, we must address the serious funding problems and consequent delays."
"The Johnson Space Center (JSC) uses NASA funds to pay Russian cosmonauts (cosmonauts) and Ukrainian payload specialists (payload specialists) salary and living expenses during their stay in the U.S. However, NASA does not have a formal, documented policy or procedure to control this activity. We are bringing this concern to your attention for appropriate action. "
It looks like the advanced demise of Mir is having some crowding effects on the crew manifest - and upon crew skill mix. The crew slated to fly aboard Mir 27 early next year will have both a Slovak and a French cosmonaut. One small problem: neither of them has had Soyuz Flight Engineer training yet. Time to hit the books.
"Under the Thursday agreement, the government promised 600 million roubles (about $100 million) for Mir's final year. But Semyonov said it was still unclear whether Russia, which is undergoing a prolonged financial crisis, could provide the cash. Editor's note: Semyonov seems to have forgotten that the US has already spent $400 Million to rent Mir and $4 to $5 Billion on the Shuttle flights which also helped to resupply it (when they had problems getting Progress flights off). Plus, we've thrown hundreds of millions into contingency efforts because of Service Module delays and program slips in the U.S. Now I suppose they'll start suggesting that it will be our fault if Mir comes crashing down in an uncontrolled fashion - which, of course (groan) we won't allow to happen, right? Here we go folks - hold on to your wallets. This isn't going to be cheap.
"On Thursday, Yuri Semyonov, president of Energia, confirmed to Itar-Tass that the launch may be postponed as Baikonur's power was turned off because of an outstanding debt. " Editor's note: And how many launches is Russia supposed to provide on time during ISS assembly?
On Thursday, 2 July, there was supposed to have been a meeting in Moscow to decide the future of Mir. This meeting has been put off for a week. There is no money to keep it going. The conference will occur no later than 15 July since it is necessary to decide whether to send another crew to Mir. According to TASS "Not a single copeck was allocated from the 1998 federal budget for the flight. That is why the question arose on an earlier closure of the station. Around two billion roubles are needed for the maintenance of the Mir space station for 18 months. " Editor's Note: So, are they going to hold us ransom for the money required to maintain a crew so they can gradually ride the Mir down to an altitude low enough where one final burst of firing can deorbit it all at once? There is no chance they will artificially lower it (no money), so they have to wait for air drag to do the chore, a 12 to 18 month process. They can't leave it unmanned, or it would go out of control (their IBM XT rip-off clones salvaged from the Salyut program seem to be rather unreliable), so the expense of keeping it manned the next 18 months becomes part of the cost of safely deorbiting it - money they do not have.
"My greatest mistake was Laika, because at that time we did not know how to return a capsule to Earth," [Oleg] Gazenko said in an interview during a space conference in Moscow.
"Russian technicians in charge of operating the 12-year-old Mir space station say the government has failed to provide funding for Mir and they may have no choice but to abandon the station. The technicians said the 130-ton Mir, left unsupervised, may quickly and uncontrollably fall to Earth, which could be disastrous."Editor's Note: Oh great. NOW they tell us. How much will it cost THIS time?
John Holliman did a live stand up yesterday afternoon from KSC on CNN. He said that he had talked with someone who "knows Andy Thomas rather well". Holliman reported that the two cosmonauts on Mir had been making computer repairs the other day and that they had not bothered to tell Thomas just what they were doing. According to Holliman, Thomas was irked by this and had to "rely upon contacts back on Earth to find out what was really happening just next door". Question for Frank Culbertson: Is this one of the lessons you're learning from Mir? If so, how do you fix it? After all these years of working together, you'd think simple updates between fellow crew members could be worked out on-orbit. Or is this language proficiency issue? If so, why are we allowing Valery Ryumin to fly? - his English is apparently much worse than Andy's Russian! Oh yes - remember all the loud complaints from Russia back when Andy Thomas arrived on Mir and he had some initial problems with the fit of his spacesuit? Well, rumor has it that Valery Ryumin's orange ascent/descent spacesuit needed a few "adjustments" too.
"Cosmonaut Musa Manarov, who spent a total of a year and a half on two missions to Mir, agreed, comparing a member of the opposite sex on board to a loaded gun in the home. Editor's note: Yikes Musa! "Women = loaded weapons"?! It's obvious that RSA PAO didn't get in front of this interview!
"Mir must be under control for Discovery to dock with it, according to NASA officials. Flight rules say a shuttle can't launch for a docking mission with Mir unless it is expected that the station is going to be under control within 60 hours of launch."
"James Oberg, an independent consultant on Russian space affairs, said by touting all it has learned from the shuttle-Mir program, "NASA is really inadvertently bragging about how little it knew before."
"[Yuri] Koptev said the crew module, originally scheduled to be launched early next year, is "92 percent ready'' but still has to undergo a series of tests. He warned if Russia continues to delay construction, the United States may run out of patience and try to take over Russia's role in the space station.
Editor's note: In the ABC story, Mir astronaut Lineger says the 1997 Mir fire lasted 15 minutes, Russia says 115 seconds: Frank Culbertson denies knowledge of previous fires on Mir, Russian cosmonauts admit otherwise; NASA says it is safe to fly on Mir while Lineneger says he would not go back to Mir and another astronaut (Blaine Hammond) writes memos to the NASA Inspector General's office about his fears for crew safety; Valeri Ryumin's physical and linguistic fitness to fly on STS-91 is questioned, NASA dodges the issue; Goldin says Russian participation will save the U.S. taxpayers money, Rep. Sensenbrenner et al say that it will cost taxpayers $7 billion more .... Meanwhile, this week, NASA has taken pictures of: a planet circling another star, seismic quakes on the sun, and tantalizing water features on Mars ... Gee Dan: why does the NASA you administer get some things so very right and other things so very wrong?
Editor's note: Read this article. There are lots of interesting tidbits contained therein.
"Officials say it now makes more sense to build the new U.S. spaceship, which could remain docked at the station up to three years and ferry an entire crew of seven back to Earth in an emergency.Editor's Note: Well Kevin, why are we sticking with the Soyuz CRV then?
"Sensenbrenner tries to convince the United States of America that space cooperation with Russia has a lot of drawbacks, that it's not really beneficial to the United States, that Russians cannot stick to their word," said Vladimir Kovalenok, a former cosmonaut who is chief of the Zhukovsky Air Force Engineering Academy here.Editor's Note: Or, Vladimir, Sensenbrenner could be totally correct in his criticism and it is your government which has proven itself to be utterly inept when it comes to honoring the funding responsibilities that are a part of international agreements. And what does Russia do when it screws up? It blames everyone else for its problems. Are we going to have to put up with these Russian blame avoidance maneuvers for the next decade, Vladimir, or is Russia going to stop whining and start behaving like a responsible partner?
"Russia's Mir space laboratory will remain in use into the next millennium if the new International Space Station continues to be delayed, a top space official said Friday. Editor's Note: Consider the following scenario: The Service Module slips so much that NASA goes ahead and baselines the ICM. Further, the U.S. heeds the Chabrow Report and develops a U.S. reboost capability (multiple ICMs). Hearing this news, and deciding that the Service Module is no longer needed for ISS, Russia continues to build the Service Module (once known as "Mir-2") and then launches it - to Mir-1. The reason being that they need to recoup the cost of its development. Net result: the Russians have a revitalized space station wherein anything is possible now so long as the hard currency is in hand. Meanwhile, our space station is still years from being fully operational. Ergo we supported Russia's Mir-1 operations while they built Mir-2. Please note that throughout this entire ISS saga, no one has *ever* said that the Russians were stupid. Quite the contrary.
"What our colleague [Goldin] said is extremely regrettable and unpleasant," said Alexei Krasnov, the Russia Space Agency's deputy head of international cooperation. " Editor's note: .... it is also 100% true, Alexei.....
"[Director of RKK Energiya Yuri] Semyonov warned that a continuing shortage of funds could force a delay in the planned decommissioning of the 12-year-old Mir, and a launch pushback into June 1998. "
"[Director of RKK Energiya Yuri] Semyonov says Mir will remain habitable to the very end, with three more crews, including cosmonauts from Russia, France and Slovakia, planning to work on the station. Editor's note: Gee, all the Russians have to do is launch the Service Module (once known as "Mir 2") up to Mir 1 and they could have their own autonomous space station for another decade or so - so long as they could pay (or be paid) to keep it operational.
"In excellent German Andy Thomas spoke with Hans Schlegel. And it was clear that Musabayev had picked up a lot of the German language from the community of former Volga-Germans in his native country: he easely uses phrases like Gott sei Dank, Wie geht es Ihnen and Auf Wiedersehen."
Don't forget: On Thursday, 23.04.1998, on BBC-2's program "Horizon", 2130-2220 B.S.T. (2030-2129UTC), there will be a report about MIR-problems with a number of MirNews author Chris van den Berg's audiorecordings.
"The Clinton administration has issued American contractors and research laboratories a "watch list'' of some 20 Russian government agencies that may be the target of American sanctions for covertly assisting Iran's missile program. " "Israeli officials say Russia's acting foreign minister, Yevgeny Primakov, has been working to help Iran develop long-range missile technology."
"More than 800 sophisticated gyroscopes for intercontinental ballistic missiles were shipped from Moscow for Iraq in 1995, a number far larger than previously reported, according to the findings of an independent nonproliferation research group here" Editor's Note: Gee, wasn't the ISS program supposed to curb the propensity for Russia to sell its aerospace weapons expertise to nations such as Iraq? Yet here they are selling sophisticated missile guidance components more than a year into the ISS program.
"House Science Committee Chairman F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr. (R-WI) and Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-TX) today expressed disappointment and concern that funding remains significantly in doubt for Russian components of the International Space Station following their just completed visit to Moscow. The bipartisan Science Committee delegation met with a series of Russian government officials including senior officials in the Ministry of Finance, the Russian Space Agency (RSA), the Duma, and Russian President Yeltsin's space advisor Marshal Yevgeny Shaposhnikov."
"For those who followed Monday's Mir spacewalk, it was difficult to figure out what was truly going on. Only after a few days did it become clear that it was mission control in Moscow that was the most confused."
Editor's Note: NASA Watch and BitFlip make it into Russia's Nezavisimaia Gazeta - well, almost. We assume that NASA Watch = "Internet" and that the "letter" refers to BitFlip. Update: We made an error yesterday in attributing this article to Izvestia when, in actuality, it appeared in Nezavisimaia Gazeta. Also, we now now that indeed NASA Watch and BitFlip were the sources alluded to in this article.
"So the Americans have won the "who breaks the silence first" game after all. our partners themselves do not conceal the fact that they are also encountering serious problems. The Americans are behind schedule in creating the software which is necessary primarily for providing communications and control for the first modules.
"So in fact two reasons to cut short the EVA: tired cosmonauts and unwarranted communication gaps. But the cosmonauts did not want to stop and the authorities on earth badly needed an EVA which was 100% successful."
"Two Russian cosmonauts repaired a solar panel damaged in last year's near-fatal accident on the Mir orbital station during a space walk on Monday but poor radio communications meant a second job was put off. "
"Mission Control ordered two Russian cosmonauts to cut short a space walk outside the Mir orbital station on Monday after a motor ran out of fuel and the station began to lose alignment, Russian news agencies said."Editor's note: The latest wire story from Moscow now claims that Mission Control admits that there really was a rocket engine problem with Mir that caused the space walk to be ended early. Russian press reports had made that assertion earlier in the day, but an official Russian space spokesman had denied the claim. Now they admit that the earlier report was correct in the first place. The hardware problems which ended the space walk are bad enough, but to have the Russian government's space officials caught so quickly in a cover-up is very bad news for future cooperative ventures.
"NASA Director Joseph Rothenberg promised the Congressman that Node 1 will be able to take off on time. But the point is that the United States lacks our rich experience in rush work. And Russia, Izvestiya has been tipped off, has a secret unpublicized reserve up its sleeve to ensure that the ill-starred module is launched on time."Editor's Note: I see no evidence whatosever of any "rich experience in rush work" by Russia. Instead, I see clear evidence of a "rich experience" by Russia in breaking commitments, practiced deceit during negotiation, holding their partner's progress hostage by threatening to under-perform, and habitual check bouncing. Russia seeks to deflect the issue of their noncompliance by trying to cite U.S. delays as some sort of justification without adding the obvious fact that the bulk of U.S. delays have to do with accommodating Russia into the ISS program and then cleaning up the mess Russia has made of this "partnership".
"The launch of the first power (or functional-cargo) module of the international space station has been put off from June 30 to August 28, 1998, the press center of Russia's Khrunichev aerospace corporation told Interfax."
"Deputy Mission Control chief Viktor Blagov cited problems with "unconscientious" journalists who allegedly exaggerated some of the Mir's past problems. "Nobody will reverse the decision," Blagov said Thursday, according to the ITAR-Tass news agency. " Editor's note: is this example of xenophobic, Soviet-era public relations behavior what we can expect from Russia during the times when it is going to be handling ISS operations? I wonder what would happen if CNN flew John Holliman to Mir (as they have expressed interest in doing) and something went wrong during his mission....
"For example, during some of the dangerous breakdowns of the oxygen-generating system on Mir, Russian ground controllers were calling up to cosmonauts to get them to do Israeli milk commercials, Linenger said. The cosmonauts were more interested in fixing vital equipment and told the ground controllers so. "I learned some new Russian words,'' he said. Swear words."
"Outgoing Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin said on Monday there was no need for banks and businesses to panic over President Boris Yeltsin's dismissal of the government." Editor's note: That's right - "outgoing Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin" - the very same fellow upon whom Vice President Gore had recently lavished praise and placed his hopes for a variety of cooperative ventures - including the International Space Station. Seems that Boris Yeltsin suddenly decided it is time to clean house. This wholly unexpected gesture will do nothing to calm the fears of those who question Russia's ability to provide a stable government - one which is capable of devoting the resources needed to meet its international commitments. The good news, I suppose, is that Chernomyrdin's temporary replacement, Fuel and Energy Minister Sergei Kiriyenko, is a banker. Perhaps Sergei can figure out how to scare up the money to build the Service Module.
"The repeated denials have left diplomats and some Russian observers wondering whether the government is willing or able to stop the flow of scientists to Tehran. "If it wasn't government policy before, then how can they guarantee they can stop it now? If it was government policy, then they were lying before and who should believe them now?" said one Russian official."
"Koptev, trying to turn the tables on the United States, said NASA was trying to "concentrate attention entirely on Russia's difficulties'' even though it was "three months behind'' in constructing a laboratory module. " Editor's note: Hey Yuri: where's your government's funding for deorbiting Mir and the construction of those ISS science modules? .... At least NASA is admitting that it needs more money - a lot of which is required to fix things caused by Russia's chronic failure to meet its commitments.
".... The company has ushered in the new cigarette with one of the most eye-catching recent local advertising campaigns, appealing to Russian patriotism. Editor's Note: Perhaps the Russians could sell advertising space on the side of the Service Module and use the ad fees to complete its construction. This would seem to be a far more reliable funding source than relying upon the Duma to meet their obligations.
"RSA agrees to work with Russian customs officials to reduce the time to clear customs in Russia. "Editor's note: after all these years, customs is still a problem!
"According to Koptev, this issue was being coordinated in principle and examined by Russian Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin last week. All the required decisions as regards the financing of that project's Russian component have already been made. Yuri Koptev explained that the 1998 federal budget, which was passed in the fourth (and final) reading last week, didn't stipulate any Alpha-station appropriations whatsoever.In other words, we didn't have the required 1.5 billion roubles, Koptev went on to say. In this connection, we had to find additional reserves, with the Government issuing the appropriate orders to Russia's Minister of Finance Mikhail Zadornov, who is now dealing with all essential formalities in this field. Our American partners were very much worried about the fact that the 1998 federal budget didn't stipulate any Alpha-project appropriations; that's why this issue will also be discussed by the Chernomyrdin-Gore commission."
"The Clinton administration may allow Moscow to expand a lucrative program to launch American satellites if it agrees to crack down on the sale of missile technology to Iran, U.S. and Russian officials say. "
"Deputy State Department spokesman James Foley said "it was generally accurate" that Russia twice turned down formal U.S. government requests to find out how U.S.-made supercomputers were illegally diverted to Russian nuclear plants. " Editor's Note: Is it just me or has Russia continued to be in the driver's seat vis-a-vis technology negotiations with the US? There never seems to be any penalty for breaking agreements or lying. If Russia is not selling missile technology to Iran then why is an agreement not to do so even being discussed?. If they're not getting our supercomputer technology illegally then why are they afraid of an investigation? It seems that the Clinton Administration will do anything to keep the Russians happy on Earth and in space - and the Russians know it.
"One official, who asked not to be named, said the issue of Russia's missile technology exports to Iran was on the agenda at this week's Washington meetings between U.S. Vice President Al Gore and Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin. "Editor's Note: Wait a minute.... Wasn't one of the Clinton Administration's main selling points for Russian participation in the International Space Station program that such participation would serve as an incentive for their rocket scientists NOT to use their skills to aid countries like Iran? They were not supposed to be doing this sort of thing - and now we're negotiating with them AGAIN to get them to stop?
"The prime minister singled out closer ties in space, particularly U.S. and European participation in the Mir space station. Space cooperation, he said, had saved billions of dollars and enriched knowledge on all sides. "Editor's note: Viktor, are you sure that your translator got that last sentence right?
Editor's note: so ... does this mean that Russia now has the money to finish the Service Module?
"....despite daily conversations with the Russian Flight Controllers, despite daily conversations with the Russian Medical Group, despite several comments from Andy in private and open A/G comm, and despite a personal appeal from Mr. Culbertson to Mr. Blagov, we observe no significant or consistent change in the efforts of our Russian colleagues to solve this issue favorably."
"The United States may allow Russia to launch more foreign commercial satellites to raise millions of dollars for its cash-strapped space agency, a Clinton administration official said Monday. " Editor's Note: Such U.S. attempts to help the Russians scare up hard cash (as an incentive for them to honor their other space committments) seem to be happening with increasing frequency - often in synchrony with Gore/Chernomyrdin Commission meetings. Either we're changing schedules to free up boosters intended for ISS use or relaxing commercial launch quotas to allow them to get more hard cash. Indeed, Russia often seems to be modulating their performance on ISS, dragging us along from one funding crisis to the next, in order to leverage more commercial concessions. Should we be expecting this to continue throughout the duration of the ISS program? - and what does this say about Russia's ability to meet their resupply committments (using these very marketable launchers) for the ISS program?
2 March 1998: Is Mrs. Ryumin going to fly on a US Space Shuttle (again)? NASA won't confirm it - but internal documents show that yet another Russian has been added to STS-88, set for early July launch. If true, they'll have to unload supplies and possibly some scientific equipment to make room. Who will the lucky passenger be? Odds seem to favor Yelena Kondakova, wife of STS-91 crewmember Valery Ryumin.
There is a backlog of email waiting to get to Andy Thomas on Mir. We understand that the Russian packet operator has now started to refuse to accept personal email files. NASA is very concerned about this and has voiced strong objections to Russia. This issue is of such concern to NASA that attempts are now being made via U.S. ground stations to get email u |