Once again NASA has been blindsided by its "trusted" Russian partners.

This week, Yuri Koptev made a last minute request that NASA consider shifting the FGB's launch time by 10 hours, thus changing the orbit of ISS so as to match that of Mir. As currently baselined, both station's orbits are at the same inclination, but the right ascension of their orbits is 140 degrees apart. This change would make them coplanar.

Several years ago, Russia had requested the current arrangement since they could not track two space stations simultaneously as they moved overhead. With the current arrangement, one station's daily passes would be completed with enough time in between to allow reconfiguration for the other's daily passes. With this new coplanar request, that would no longer seem to be a concern to Russia. NASA has agreed to evaluate the request and give answer back within a week or so.

From what NASA Watch has learned, Koptev is under increasing pressure from nationalist forces within Russia who are intent upon keeping Mir in orbit and operational. While the political reason for this request is clear, the programmatic reason for this orbit change is not clear yet. What is of concern is why Russia waited until the last minute to request this change. Indeed, why couldn't this have been addressed months ago instead of 2 weeks before launch?

Some suggestion has been made within NASA that the reason for this change would to facilitate the transfer of some scientific hardware from Mir to ISS. If this is the case, one has to ask whether the use of a shuttle mission, at $500 Million each, to go up to Mir and grab several thousand pounds of used hardware makes more economic sense than simply using planned ISS research hardware - or building new hardware.

There is also speculation of a more complex reason: that the Russians would like to consider refurbishing, and then moving, a module or two (Spektr and Piroda) over to ISS from Mir. This would, of course, require that Mir be kept operational (hence manned) for several years until such time as the modules were fixed and ISS was configured to accept these modules. ISS assembly flights 8R and 10R (for Russia's "Research Modules") are currently shown with "TBD" launch dates but are likely be given dates in late 2001 or 2002. There would be some logic to this request from Russia's point of view since they have no money whatsoever to build the two "Research Modules" they are supposed to provide to ISS.

Again the question of economics arises. It is already clear, by Russia's own admission, that they cannot afford to produce and fly the Progress and Soyuz missions required to maintain both Mir and ISS assembly. Indeed, with production orders and lead times being what they are, the vehicles required for such dual operations could not be in place - even if ordered today. It would seem that ISS assembly would suffer - unless, of course, the U.S. pursued a non-Russian path.

The money to pay for extended Mir operations would have to come from somewhere (take a guess). Recent figures quoted by Russian space officials claim that a year of Mir operations costs $250 million. Since this module transfer scenario would add at least 2 more year's to Mir's life, an additional $500 million will need to come from somewhere. (c'mon take a guess)

Why spend $500 Million to keep Mir operational, further diminishing Russia's ability to meet its ISS responsibilities, just to keep several used (and in one case damaged) modules on life support when the same funds could be used for new facilities - perhaps a refitting of the US Hab shell? Why incur more expense on the U.S. in forcing the adoption of additional Russian contingency plans?

What is troubling about this request is that it comes only weeks before the FGB is to be launched. Such bad timing is clearly indicative of extreme interest within Russian political factions to keep Mir operational. It also smacks of an intent to use last minute pressure to force the US into a corner - indeed to force the U.S. to say "no" for political use by nationalists back in Russia.

It seems that whatever scenario unfolds - be it a shuttle flight or several years of Mir operations, at least $500 million will be needed. Oh yes, then there is still the troubling issue of dumping what's left of Mir into the ocean. That is assuming that Russia intends to dump Mir.

There is another aspect to this last minute surprise. According to Russian space program analyst Jim Oberg "These last minute changes are disturbing. It looks like the U.S. is being set up and placed into a position that was suggested - and rejected in summer 1995. That is, if the Service Module is late, or does not appear, that the FGB/Node 1 vehicle would need to dock to Mir until such time as the Service Module were to show up. If it ever shows up, that is. This would then make the U.S. responsible for maintaining Mir."

Meanwhile sources within NASA say that the docking mechanism currently installed on the FGB is not compatible with any docking port currently installed on Mir.

If Russia uses this last minute tactic this time, what stunt might they pull next time - say just before a planned Service Module launch? What if the Service Module's launch date starts to slip so far off as to imperil the program - unless, something akin to a Mir docking scenario were to be used?

Once again the Russians seem to be using their own non-performance to hold the US and its partners for ransom so as to gain concessions they cannot otherwise achieve. Even if we say no and they back down, this mode of behavior is likely to be the shape of things to come.

Gee, what a wonderful working relationship lies ahead.

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